US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…
S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with fewer than two sectors doing so. Image: Hi Mount Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM Exposure Index, currently at 86.28, signals that active investment managers remain confident and heavily invested in U.S. equities. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
S&P 500 vs. Margin Debt Margin debt boosts market gains as investors leverage their positions to increase buying power. A reliable warning sign for reducing portfolio risk occurs when margin balances drop below the 12-month moving average. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – 5-Day Put/Call Volume Ratio The 5-day moving average of the put/call volume ratio has hit its lowest point since late 2021’s bull market peak. Sustained low readings in this ratio often indicate market tops and excessive optimism. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and the Percentage of Stocks Above 10-Day MAs The rise in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 10-day moving averages can be interpreted as a tactical bullish divergence, providing valuable insights into market strength and the potential for a reversal. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and Monthly MACD The overall trend of the S&P 500 is upward, as indicated by the rising 12-month moving average, and the positive signal from the MACD further supports this notion. Image: BofA Global Research
Forward S&P 500 Return Following Break in 200-DMA Staying above the 200-day moving average may provide higher forward returns for the S&P 500 index, indicating positive market momentum and potentially leading to favorable investment outcomes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – Initial Jobless Claims The four-week moving average of jobless claims ticked higher, suggesting that the road to recovery is a long journey. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
% of Economies with Improving Manufacturing PMI vs. Previous Month Based on a 3-month moving average, 82% of economies now see an improvement in their manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 and End of Two Year Bear Market This chart suggests that the 200-week moving average will be defended, as the two-year bear market ended in March. Image: Morgan Stanley Research