NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index Index sits at 43.01, showing bearish sentiment among active investment managers, reflecting a cautious approach towards the market and a preference for lower exposure…
U.S. Labor Market – Initial Jobless Claims The four-week moving average of jobless claims ticked higher, suggesting that the road to recovery is a long journey. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Spreads A breakthrough in the 200-day moving average has historically been bullish for high yield. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
% of Economies with Improving Manufacturing PMI vs. Previous Month Based on a 3-month moving average, 82% of economies now see an improvement in their manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 and End of Two Year Bear Market This chart suggests that the 200-week moving average will be defended, as the two-year bear market ended in March. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 – 1987 vs. 2008 vs. 2020 This chart shows the percentage of stocks below their 50-day moving average vs. the 1987 & 2008 drawdowns. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 and Secular Bull Market Behavior The S&P 500 below the 200-week moving average is not secular bull market behavior. Image: BofA Global Research
Housing – U.S. Construction Spending and Recessions Historically, when the three month moving average turned negative, a U.S. recession occurred within a 12-month period, 7 times out of 9. Image: Pictet Asset Management
10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel
S&P 500 and U.S. Economic Surprises This chart shows the current divergence between the S&P 500 YoY and the 12-month moving average of the U.S. economic surprise index. Image: Oxford Economics and Macrobond