Secular Bull Market – S&P 500 with 200-Day and 200-Week Moving Averages This chart suggests that the secular bull market is intact, as the 200-week moving average is a strong support level. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Averages The percentage of NYSE stocks above 200-day MAs is below 10% and as oversold as it was in 2008-2009, 1987 and 1974. Image: BofA Global Research
% of S&P 500 Members Above 200-Day Moving Average This chart shows that breadth across stocks and sectors had been weakening, even though the S&P 500 was climbing to new highs. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Technology – Percentage Above/Below 200-Day Moving Average Chart suggesting that the S&P 500’s tech sector is the most overbought since the internet bubble. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P Technology Sector and 200-Day Moving Average The chart suggests that the tech sector appears stretched, at nearly 20% above its 200-day moving average. Image: Strategas
S&P 500 and Moving Average When the 200-day moving average is back above the 400-day moving average, it tends to be bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Commonwealth Financial
Valuation – S&P 500 Deviation From Long-Term Moving Average Interesting chart showing that the S&P 500 is currently more than 15% above its 3-year moving average. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation U.S. stock correlations have recently surged to their highest levels since late 2022, indicating that stocks are moving more in tandem than usual—a trend that typically emerges during periods of heightened uncertainty or market stress. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold / U.S. Average Worker’s Wage Despite a bullish outlook fueled by declining interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases, gold is seen as expensive relative to the average wage of a U.S. worker. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 – NDR Multi-Cap % Stocks >10-Day Monving Average of 93% or More In recent history, when 93% of U.S. stocks or more are above their 10-day moving average, good things tend to happen over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…