S&P 500 and 200-Day Moving Average

S&P 500 and 200-Day Moving Average This chart shows how far above the S&P 500 is relative to its 200-day moving average. Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 and Moving Average

S&P 500 and Moving Average When the 200-day moving average is back above the 400-day moving average, it tends to be bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Commonwealth Financial

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low

Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57%

US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment​

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. The NAAIM Exposure Index stands at 12.61%. NAAIM members are very bearish. Image: National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM)

U.S. Labor Market – Initial Jobless Claims

U.S. Labor Market – Initial Jobless Claims The four-week moving average of jobless claims ticked higher, suggesting that the road to recovery is a long journey. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management