U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX

U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX The U.S. equity risk premium remains above its long-term average, but the risk-adjusted return of equity has dropped below its long-term avearge this year. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E

S&P 500 Cycle-Adjusted P/E The S&P500 cycle-adjusted P/E is now 29.9 and 75% above its long-term average, suggesting weak equity returns over the next 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

Distributions of Volatility by Countries

Distributions of Volatility by Countries This chart shows the average of 6-month rolling standard deviation of monthly returns over the last 10 years. Image: J.P. Morgan

First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975

First, Middle, Final Years of S&P 500 Bull Markets since 1975 The chart shows that the S&P 500 has generated a 26.9% return on average, in the final years of bull markets since 1975, excluding the current bull market. You may also like “Equity Market Performance Around Bear Markets.” Image: Legg Mason

Dow Jones Index since 1896

Dow Jones Index since 1896 This great chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index since 1896 and lengthy periods of time with zero returns (dividends are not included). That’s the reason why we develop stock market forecasting models. Image: Mohnish Pabrai

Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle’s Market Forecast

Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle’s Market Forecast Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle has done more for the average investor than any person in the financial industry. By the end of 2018, he tells us why he thinks returns will be lower in the coming years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5fX0CdESMk