Median 1-Year U.S. Inflation by Party Inflation expectations in the U.S. over the coming 12 months differ sharply along partisan lines, with Republicans anticipating low inflation and Democrats expecting it to rise significantly. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day February’s CPI inflation drops to 2.8%, beating the 2.9% forecast. On CPI days, bulls are like kids in a candy store, while bears sit in the corner, sulking like they forgot their party hats! Happy Great Day, Everyone! 😎
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears celebrate CPI days like kids in a candy store, while bulls are left in the corner, watching the fun unfold—like being at a party with no invites! Happy Great Day, Everyone! 😎
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears hate CPI days like this week! It’s tough for them like kids at a birthday party with no cake—just sitting there, wondering why they weren’t invited to the fun! Happy Friday, Everyone! 😎
Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup
U.S. Consumer Prices Index vs. U.S. Composite PMI Input Prices (Leading Indicator) U.S. Composite PMI Input Prices tend to lead U.S. CPI by 6 months, reflecting the impact of changes in input prices on consumer prices over time. Image: Charles Schwab
Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 12 Months Before and 18 Months After Inflation Peaks Since WWII, the S&P 500 has bottomed seven months after the peak in CPI inflation. Image: Stifel
Inflation – Rent Growth U.S. rents are falling, but this is not yet reflected in the CPI. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – Rule of 20 vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index The rule of 20 (P/E + CPI) still suggests that U.S. equities are overvalued. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 in Real Terms The S&P 500 deflated by U.S. CPI has retraced its entire COVID bull market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
FMS Investors – Which of the Following Is Most Likely to Lead the S&P 500 Above 5000? Could a drop in U.S. CPI to 3% drive the S&P 500 above 5000? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey