The Amount of Outstanding Negative-Yielding Debt since 2009 Investors are paying governments for the privilege of holding their bonds and are losing so much money in real terms. Raising interest rates in the future could be painful for bond investors. Image: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
Is Tesla Stock a Good Investment? Ouch, Tesla stock is down from $377 to $196 in just 23 weeks. Tesla is not a tech company, but a car company. It isn’t making as much money as expected. The future of Tesla is far from certain, with billions in debt coming due soon. Image: Hedgeye Risk…
Five Central Banks With Negative Rates Money markets expect the ECB will cut rates by Q1 2020. Image: Bloomberg
US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…
Why Albert Einstein Said “Compound Interest Is the Eighth Wonder of the World” If you invest $3000 per year from 10 years before you turn 30, you would earn more money when you turn 70 than if you invest $3000 per year from 30 until 70. That’s the power of compounding, because the amount earned…
How to Get Inflation? Mainly, inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Nominal GDP = M x V = P x T M = quantity of money V = velocity of circulation of money P = level of prices T =…
Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments? Keep in mind that most IPOs lose money for investors after 5 years. Images: CNBC, Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
“Real Fed Rates Are the Most Accurate Predictor of Future S&P 500 Volatility,” Says SocGen SocGen says it is the most accurate predictor of S&P 500’s volatility over the last 50 years. Should investors be nervous about rising real interest rates? Yes, higher real interest rates mean higher borrowing costs. Real Fed funds rate is…
Where Does Inflation Come From? Mainly inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Over the long term, Nominal GDP = Money Supply x Velocity of Money = Inflation + Real Economic Growth “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” –Milton Friedman. You…
Why Is Core Inflation So Low Compared To Previous Business Cycles? The Consumer Price Index Less Food & Energy (Core CPI) is very low compared to previous business cycles in the US, for several reasons: – not fast-rising money supply – globalization: inflation is a global phenomenon – lack of wage acceleration – increase in…
Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…