S&P 500 TTM YoY EPS vs. Fed Funds Target Traditionally, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, corporate profits tend to decelerate. However, this’s not the case today, highlighting the unique economic landscape we face. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Global EPS Model vs. Consensus EPS BofA indicates a trend of slowing growth in its global earnings per share model, reflecting a shift toward a more cautious economic outlook. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Real GDP and Inflation The U.S. economy has avoided recessions and stagflations 90% of the time, inspiring confidence in investors and showcasing the country’s commitment to long-term economic stability and growth. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
G3 Real Core Retail Sales Since 2019, real core retail sales in the United States have risen significantly, while Germany has seen stagnant growth and Japan has witnessed a decline, reflecting differing economic conditions and consumer behaviors. Image: BofA Global Research
Range of U.S. GDP YoY Growth Forecasts and Maximum Error over 12-Month Prior While the U.S. economy may avoid a recession in 2024, U.S. GDP forecast dispersion remains at high levels, highlighting the inherent uncertainty and volatility in the current economic landscape. Image: BofA Global Research
Relative Performance of the Equal-Weighted S&P 500 vs. Cap-Weighted S&P 500 by Macro Regimes The equal-weighted S&P 500 historically tends to outperform the cap-weighted index in economic recoveries, suggesting potential stronger growth for smaller and mid-cap companies compared to larger ones. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious? Image: Real Investment Advice
Global GDP – OECD Forecasts OECD forecasts 4.2% global growth in 2021, as global economic outlook remains uncertain. Image: Financial Times
Leading Indicators Are Improving Globally Leading economic indicators have been improving throughout 2019. This may suggest that global growth is back on track. Image: Richardson Wealth
Major Central Bank Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Equities Chart suggesting that the growth in G3 central bank balance sheets is positive for emerging market equities. Image: Oxford Economics
Consumer Spending Contribution to U.S. GDP Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, is driving GDP growth solo. Image: Oxford Economics