U.S. Corporate Bond Spreads U.S. corporate bond spreads are currently at historically tight levels, suggesting potential bubble-like conditions. While a major correction is not guaranteed, several factors indicate rising risks in the first half of 2025. Image: Alpine Macro
Flows into Money Market Funds Investor interest in U.S. government money market funds continues to be strong, driven by their current attractive yields, high level of safety and liquidity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) When yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are higher than those on Japanese government bonds, it can lead to a weakening of the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar. Image: BCA Research
FMS Investors – Net % Expecting Lower Long-Term Rates Only 38% of FMS investors expect bond yields to decrease, while the majority anticipate stable or potentially higher bond yields. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Cumulative Asset Flows in % of AUM Terms In 2023, there has been a notable trend of strong inflows into “risk-free” assets, indicating a growing preference for low-risk investment options in an environment of higher yields. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Importance of Macro Driver in Explaining Returns Higher real 10-year UST yields can potentially lead to a decrease in U.S. stock returns, but other factors should also be considered. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth vs. S&P 500 YoY With yields no longer supporting high valuations, earnings growth is expected to be the main factor driving U.S. equity returns in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
IG and HY Bond Fund Flows It is common for investors to prefer investment-grade (IG) bonds over high-yield (HY) bonds when seeking lower-risk investments. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Treasury Return vs. S&P 500 Return Is the pain trade still U.S. stocks and UST yields higher? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Dividend Payout Ratio Despite a high dividend payout ratio, the S&P 500 dividend yield is near historic lows at 1.3%. Image: Scotiabank GBM Portfolio Strategy
CRB Raw Industrials to Gold Ratio Does the CRB raw industrials index to gold ratio suggest higher 10-year UST yields? Image: BCA Research