How the S&P 500 Performance After Big Starts to Previous Election Years After a strong start to the election year, the U.S. stock market tends to regain momentum towards the end of Q2 and generally continues to perform well until the end of the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 After Initial Fed Rate Cuts Outside Of Recession Outside of recessions, U.S. stocks have tended to rise after the Fed’s first rate cut, with an average gain of 15% within 12 months. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
S&P 500 Performance When Higher in November, December, January, February, and March Since 1950, when the S&P 500 index has been higher in November, December, January, February, and March, the rest of the year has been higher 100% of the time, with an average gain of 11.9%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 118 or More New 52-Week Highs 118 new 52-week highs for the S&P 500 (using first signal in 6 months) suggest a bullish outlook over the next 12 months, with an average gain of 12% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Returns – S&P 500 Index >5% YTD on Day 50 Since 1954, when the S&P 500 index has risen by more than 5% on day 50, the rest of the year has been higher 96% of the time, with an average gain of 12.6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Price 20-Week Change Since the 1930s, there have been 10 instances of U.S. stocks gaining over 25% in just five months, demonstrating the market’s potential for rapid and significant growth in a relatively short space of time. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Performance for the Year Based on If January and February Are Higher Since 1950, when both January and February have been positive for the S&P 500, the average annual gain has historically been 19.87%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Share of S&P 500 Stocks Underperforming the Index Despite the strong performance of the S&P 500 index in 2023, more than 70% of the individual stocks within the index underperformed, indicating that the overall gains were driven by a relatively small number of stocks. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Valuation Matrix (12-Month Forward EPS and P/E Multiple) According to Morgan Stanley, U.S. equity market gains in 2024 may stall due to high forward multiples and ambitious earnings forecasts for the next 12 months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Performance After a New All-Time High and More Than a Year Without Making One The S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high after more than a year without making one can be seen as a bullish sign that tends to lead to further gains. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual Chart Despite an impressive 24.2% gain in 2023, the S&P 500 index has done virtually nothing over the past two years. When adjusted for inflation, it is still significantly below its peak. Image: Topdown Charts