U.S. House Prices Lead Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. house prices lead real personal consumption expenditure by 6 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Home Prices Lead U.S. Consumption This chart suggests that home prices lead U.S. consumption by 9 months. Image: Nordea, Sebastian Dypbukt Källman
Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth This chart shows that consumption is the primary driver of China’s economic growth. You may also like “China Real GDP Growth Projection.” Image: ANZ Research
How Have Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Declined Ahead Of Every Recession? Consumer spending drives the US economy. Historically, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, decline before a recession. That’s not the case today. So, a recession may not be imminent in this late-cycle expansion.
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a strong indicator of economic strength or weakness. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In May, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.89% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth The U.S. stock market’s recent underperformance is expected to reduce the wealth effect, turning it from a boost to a drag on consumption and increasing the risk of a broader economic slowdown as consumer spending weakens. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Personal Saving Rate Since 1959 Precautionary saving could weigh down on consumption. Image: Deutsche Bank
Share of Energy from Renewable Sources In the United States, renewable energy sources account for about 11% of total energy consumption. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Debt to Net Worth Ratio for U.S. Households vs. Financial Obligations Ratio Chart suggesting that U.S. household finances are in good shape. This is good news for consumption spending, which accounts for about 70% of all U.S. economic activity. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
Share of World GDP U.S. consumption alone accounts for around 17% of word GDP, a larger share than the entire Chinese economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research