U.S. House Prices Lead Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. house prices lead real personal consumption expenditure by 6 months. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Home Prices Lead U.S. Consumption This chart suggests that home prices lead U.S. consumption by 9 months. Image: Nordea, Sebastian Dypbukt Källman
Contribution of Consumption to China’s GDP Growth This chart shows that consumption is the primary driver of China’s economic growth. You may also like “China Real GDP Growth Projection.” Image: ANZ Research
How Have Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Declined Ahead Of Every Recession? Consumer spending drives the US economy. Historically, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, decline before a recession. That’s not the case today. So, a recession may not be imminent in this late-cycle expansion.
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In April, U.S. real retail sales stand at 0% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
U.S. Personal Saving Rate Since 1959 Precautionary saving could weigh down on consumption. Image: Deutsche Bank
Share of Energy from Renewable Sources In the United States, renewable energy sources account for about 11% of total energy consumption. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Debt to Net Worth Ratio for U.S. Households vs. Financial Obligations Ratio Chart suggesting that U.S. household finances are in good shape. This is good news for consumption spending, which accounts for about 70% of all U.S. economic activity. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
Share of World GDP U.S. consumption alone accounts for around 17% of word GDP, a larger share than the entire Chinese economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…