U.S. Output Gap as % of Potential GDP and U.S. Wage Growth (Leading Indicator) Chart suggesting that US output gap as % of potential GDP tends to lead US wage growth by one year. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Wage Growth and U.S. Productivity (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that wage growth tends to lead U.S. productivity by 21 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Prime Age Employment Ratio and Wage Growth Wage growth is sluggish, despite historically low unemployment in the United States. Image: Swedbank Research
Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth The last three U.S. economic expansions ended with the Federal Reserve hiking to curb wage growth, but not this time. That’s quite bullish. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Wage Growth and Business Cycles Despite the U.S. economic expansion is now the longest in history, wage growth has been much slower during this business cycle than in previous cycles. Image: CNBC
Wage Growth vs. Fed Funds Target Rate and S&P 500 High wage growth and accomodative monetary policy suggest a return to the sweet spot for the S&P 500. Image: Topdown Charts
Weaker Wage Growth in the Current Expansion Interesting chart showing that wage growth is much weaker than it was in the late 1990s. Image: Economic Policy Institute
Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth U.S. unemployment rate at 3.7% and U.S. wage growth at 3.2% in July. U.S. employment growth slows, suggesting the U.S. economy is cooling. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Since 1990, No Recessions Without 4% Wage Growth Since the beginning of the Great Recession, wage growth has been slow in this business cycle. But keep in mind that since 1990, no recessions without 4% wage growth. So, a recession is probably not imminent. Image: Blackrock