Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…

U.S. Freight Shipping Activity

U.S. Freight Shipping Activity The New York Fed’s manufacturing report suggests a rebound in freight shipping activity this year. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP

Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.” Image: Macro…

Growth and Inflation

Growth and Inflation This chart shows the ISM Index vs. prices paid deviation from the mean since 2009. Currently, the U.S. manufacturing cycle has headed back into recession & deflation. Image: Fidelity Investments

Copper to Gold Ratio

Copper to Gold Ratio The copper to gold ratio provides useful information on the evolution of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the average weekly hours worked. Image: Paolo Cardena

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys

Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Image: Sampension

Cass Freight Index and U.S. GDP

Cass Freight Index and U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Index suggests first signs of manufacturing activity bottoming out. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research

Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP

Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP Search trends are very different between China (manufacturing industry) and the USA/Eurozone (consumer), when forecasting real GDP. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC