Global PMI vs. Orders/Inventory Ratio (Leading Indicator) Inventory-shipment ratios suggest a surge in the global manufacturing PMI over the next 2-3 months. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…
U.S. Freight Shipping Activity The New York Fed’s manufacturing report suggests a rebound in freight shipping activity this year. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Cass Freight Shipments Index (6ma) vs. U.S. GDP The chart shows the Cass Freight Shipments Index (6-month average). It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in 3Q19. The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.” Image: Macro…
Growth and Inflation This chart shows the ISM Index vs. prices paid deviation from the mean since 2009. Currently, the U.S. manufacturing cycle has headed back into recession & deflation. Image: Fidelity Investments
Copper to Gold Ratio The copper to gold ratio provides useful information on the evolution of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the average weekly hours worked. Image: Paolo Cardena
U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Drawdowns in S&P 500 vs. ISM Surveys Interesting chart showing drawdowns in S&P 500 versus ISM surveys. Weakness in the manufacturing and service sectors matters. Image: Sampension
Cass Freight Index and U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Index suggests first signs of manufacturing activity bottoming out. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research
Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP Search trends are very different between China (manufacturing industry) and the USA/Eurozone (consumer), when forecasting real GDP. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC