Value vs. Growth Stocks

Value vs. Growth Stocks Since 1927, U.S. growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 30% over a 2-year period, on five occasions. Each time, it was before a recession or a war. Is it different this time? Image: BofA Merrill Lynch

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI

U.S. 10-Year Yield Leads Global PMI This interesting chart suggests that the U.S. 10-year yield (2-year change) leads global PMI by 18 months. Source: Macrobond and Brandywine Global

S&P 500 Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown

S&P 500 Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown Since 1950, the average maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 is -13.5% and the median is -10.6%. You may also like “S&P 500 Index Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs.” Image: LPL Financial LLC

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years

The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

S&P 500 Operating Earnings / NIPA Profits and S&P 500 Returns

S&P 500 Operating Earnings / NIPA Profits and S&P 500 Returns Interesting chart suggesting that S&P500 2-year returns will be negative, as they were in the late 1990s, when S&P 500 operating earnings rose relative to NIPA profits (thanks to buybacks). Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown for the S&P 500

Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown for the S&P 500 Since 1950, the median maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 is -10.6% and the average is -13.5%. You may also like “S&P 500 Index Drawdowns From 2 Year Highs.” Image: Of Dollars And Data

Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield

Gold vs. Short-term Treasury Yield This chart shows the correlation between gold and 2-year treasury yield (inverse). Gold rises on slowing global growth and short-term treasury yield inverse. Image: Jeroen Blokland