Cyclical Stocks – World Cyclicals vs. Defensives Around Bear Markets Cyclicals have recovered vs. defensives, in line with the average recovery, but they have lagged the post-GFC recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median Cyclicals vs. Defensives YoY Return Since 1990 Cyclicals tend to outperform Defensives during periods of economic strength. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclical/Defensive Ratio vs. U.S. Recessions Cyclicals tend to outperform during periods of economic strength. Image: Variant Perception Research
Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Inflation 5y/5y Forward Cyclicals tend to outperform when inflation expectations rise. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Correlation with Vaccine Optimism (Value, Defensives, S&P 500, Cyclicals and Growth) Value could outperform as vaccine optimism increases. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Growth and Defensive Sectors vs. S&P 500 ex-Growth and Defensive Sectors Growth and defensive sectors are driving the S&P 500 higher YTD. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Cyclical/Defensives Stock Ratio The recent rise in the cyclical/defensives stock ratio could suggest a rise in 10-year yields. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Cyclical to Defensives Stock Ratio The divergence between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the cyclical to defensives stock ratio suggests higher yields ahead. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Equity Strategy – Cyclicals vs. Defensives and S&P 500 Morgan Stanley suggests that the S&P 500 has potential downside to 2800-2850, as the correction in early June is likely not over. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Performance of U.S. Growth vs. Value Stocks, U.S. vs. non-U.S. Equities and S&P Cyclicals vs. Defensives Equity rotation are delivering for non-U.S. vs. U.S. markets and Cyclicals vs. Defensives, but not for Value vs. Growth. Image: J.P. Morgan
Valuation – Defensive Assets vs. Assets More Sensitive to the Economy Valuations suggest that we’re a long way from a return to normal times, as the market remains concerned about long-term growth. Image: Morgan Stanley Research