S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax cuts and deregulation faded fast as trade-war fears took center stage. Image: Bloomberg
Median S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains elevated, climbing to 2.7%. The rise, though, appears driven more by hedging activity than by outright fear or speculative panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and VIX Closes Down 25% from Intraday Peak Good news for bulls: big fear fades, stocks surge. Each time the VIX finished more than 25% off its intraday high, the S&P 500 was higher six and twelve months later—no exceptions. Since 1990, average one‑year gain: 15%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Valuations The S&P 500’s current valuation places it alongside two standout episodes of market excess—the late-1990s dot-com mania and the 2021 stimulus-fueled rally—raising a yellow flag for investors who fear a stretch of muted returns. Image: Topdown Charts
Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index The market’s ongoing volatility is a direct response to the unpredictable cycle of tariff announcements, pauses, and retaliations, with sentiment swinging between hope for de-escalation and fear of economic damage. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Target for 2025 In the coming months, robust earnings, a weaker dollar, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and easing recession fears are expected to make U.S. equities a key driver of the global equity rally. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Google Searches for “Global Financial Crisis” and “Great Recession” While fears of a 2025 tariff-driven recession evoke memories of 2008, some investors see today’s prevailing pessimism as a contrarian bullish signal for stocks. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment has often marked market bottoms. Image: CNBC
Magnificent Seven Stocks vs. S&P 500 Index Since DeepSeek’s emergence in January 2025, the Magnificent Seven stocks have underperformed compared to the S&P 500, driven by AI disruption fears and concerns over capital expenditures. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 2s10s Yield Curve and Consensus Probability of a U.S. Recessions in the Next 12 Months Although fears of a U.S. recession have been mounting, the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve’s recent steepening suggests a more optimistic economic outlook. Image: Deutsche Bank