S&P 500 vs. High-Grade U.S. Bonds vs. Junk U.S. Bonds

S&P 500 vs. High-Grade U.S. Bonds vs. Junk U.S. Bonds While U.S. stocks generally have higher long-term returns, the current economic climate may favor junk U.S. bonds as a more stable investment option amidst fears of an equity downturn. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Election Scenario Probability

U.S. Election Scenario Probability As Republicans gain momentum heading into the U.S. elections, the prospect of their sweeping victory raises both hopes for short-term economic gains and fears of larger deficits and sustained inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank

Corporate Clients’ 4-Week Average Buybacks vs. S&P 500 Total Quarterly Buybacks

Corporate Clients’ 4-Week Average Buybacks vs. S&P 500 Total Quarterly Buybacks BofA’s corporate clients are significantly increasing stock buybacks, defying recession fears and indicating a positive market outlook, suggesting these companies expect ongoing growth and stability in the future. Image: BofA Securities

Volatility – VIX Curve and U.S. Election

Volatility – VIX and U.S. Election The historical trend of the VIX spiking before U.S. elections and then rapidly declining afterward can be attributed to heightened uncertainty and investor fear in the lead-up to the elections. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928

Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The historical pattern of the VIX rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to the elections. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Investor Psychology Cycle

Investor Psychology Cycle When investor psychology is overly negative, it may indicate undervalued market prices, presenting buying opportunities for investors who are able to take a contrarian approach and invest when others are fearful. Image: Real Investment Advice

Percentage of Time the U.S. Is in Recession

Percentage of Time the U.S. Is in Recession Will the U.S. stock market rise in the 12 months following midterm elections, despite fears of a recession? Image: Deutsche Bank