Has the United States Ever Imported a Recession from a Single Foreign Country?

Has the United States Ever Imported a Recession from a Single Foreign Country? The biggest U.S. trade partners are: China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom and France. So far, the US has never imported a recession from a single foreign country. A Chinese recession would be bad for the U.S. and the…

Total Holdings of U.S. Long-Term Securities

Monthly Foreign Net Purchases of Long-Term U.S. Securities Record foreign holdings of U.S. assets in 2025 point to lasting investor confidence, even in the face of global economic and geopolitical risks. Image: Bloomberg

Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.

Equities – MSCI U.S. vs. MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. American equities are falling out of step with their global peers, lagging by roughly 9%—the biggest divide since 2009—amid currency shifts and a revival of interest in foreign markets. Image: Bloomberg

Buying U.S. Equity Securities

Buying U.S. Equity Securities In 2Q 2025, foreign investors boosted their holdings of U.S. equities, while U.S. households and hedge funds cut back amid market volatility and policy uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States

S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are more exposed to global trade risks than the rest of the S&P 500, as 49% of their revenue comes from foreign sales. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Share of Tariff Cost Burden

Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day U.S. tariff policy is causing substantial harm on both the American brand and the broader economy. Rising costs, declining foreign tourism, and boycotts of American products are set to cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars. Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy