Has the United States Ever Imported a Recession from a Single Foreign Country? The biggest U.S. trade partners are: China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom and France. So far, the US has never imported a recession from a single foreign country. A Chinese recession would be bad for the U.S. and the…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day U.S. tariff policy is causing substantial harm on both the American brand and the broader economy. Rising costs, declining foreign tourism, and boycotts of American products are set to cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars. Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The S&P 493 (S&P 500 ex-Magnificent Seven) faces lower global trade risks than the Magnificent Seven, which rely on nearly 50% foreign sales. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Ownership of Developed Markets Government Debt Most U.S. government debt is owned domestically, while foreign investors hold a smaller but still significant portion. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Ownership of U.S. Government Bond Market Foreign investors remain the larger owners of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Total Non-Resident Portfolio into China Stocks and Bonds China remains the darling of foreign investors. Image: Institute of International Finance
Percentage of Company Revenue from International Trade European companies are highly dependent on foreign markets for their revenues. A rebound in world trade may benefit them directly. Image: Charles Schwab
Global FX Volatility In the current environment of low inflation and low interest rates, volatility in foreign exchange markets hits record low. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy