Has the United States Ever Imported a Recession from a Single Foreign Country? The biggest U.S. trade partners are: China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany, South Korea, United Kingdom and France. So far, the US has never imported a recession from a single foreign country. A Chinese recession would be bad for the U.S. and the…
S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are more exposed to global trade risks than the rest of the S&P 500, as 49% of their revenue comes from foreign sales. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day U.S. tariff policy is causing substantial harm on both the American brand and the broader economy. Rising costs, declining foreign tourism, and boycotts of American products are set to cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars. Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Easing rate pressure is projected to facilitate a recovery in U.S. manufacturing as financial conditions improve, inflation declines, and both domestic and foreign demand strengthen. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Ownership of Developed Markets Government Debt Most U.S. government debt is owned domestically, while foreign investors hold a smaller but still significant portion. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Ownership of U.S. Government Bond Market Foreign investors remain the larger owners of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Total Non-Resident Portfolio into China Stocks and Bonds China remains the darling of foreign investors. Image: Institute of International Finance
Percentage of Company Revenue from International Trade European companies are highly dependent on foreign markets for their revenues. A rebound in world trade may benefit them directly. Image: Charles Schwab