KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index and Recessions The KC Fed Labor Market Conditions Index is positive. Labor market conditions remain above their long-run average. Historically, a negative value is a necessary, but not sufficient requirement for recessions: it means that labor market conditions are below their long-run average.
U.S. Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart The U.S. labor market distributions spider chart shows broad labor market developments. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
U.S. Labor Market Recovery Chart suggesting that the U.S. labor market recovery is stalling. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Labor Market – Nonfarm Payrolls It could take many years for the U.S. labor market to recover. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Labor Market This chart highlights the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and the U.S. labor market. Image: Hondo Tomasz
U.S. Labor Market Chart suggesting that the U.S. labor market is still strong and healthy. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy
U.S. Labor Market: Jobs Gains and Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is slowing, but historically, recessions have been preceded by a slowing in job gains and a pickup in jobless claims. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth The slowdown in the labor force in the U.S., China, Europe and Japan, represents 62% of the world’s GDP and 69% of the equity market capitalization. The labor force growth is expected to be -1% by 2055. Image: Fidelity Investments
Performance – U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. UST 10-Year vs. S&P 500 Price Relative Bonds tend to outperform stocks in a recessionary labor market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate Consensus Forecasts Is the U.S. labor market too hot for the Federal Reserve’s liking? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy