U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the current disinflationary trend. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will reach 3.8% by December 2025. Although inflation is projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target, wage pressures are cooling and the labor market remains robust. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Forecast JPMorgan has shifted to a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks, setting a 2025 year-end S&P 500 target of 6,500, driven by U.S. economic strength, AI sector growth, a robust labor market, and monetary easing by central banks. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims The U.S.’s sustained period of low initial jobless claims indicates a stable labor market. This is a positive development showing resilience in the economy and providing hope for continued growth. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is cooling, as continuing claims are up 22.5% YoY. Image: The Daily Shot
Performance – U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. UST 10-Year vs. S&P 500 Price Relative Bonds tend to outperform stocks in a recessionary labor market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Unemployment Rate Consensus Forecasts Is the U.S. labor market too hot for the Federal Reserve’s liking? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Tech Stocks – Apple and U.S. Job Openings Some tech stocks tend to be correlated with the U.S. labor market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Length of Time before Jobs Fully Returned after a Recession How long will it take for the U.S. labor market to fully recover? Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
U.S. Jobs – U.S. Nonfarm Employment Is the labor market running hot? 10 million jobs are still missing in the United States. Image: Financial Times