Housing – CME Lumber Futures Price The combination of increased tariffs, supply constraints, and strong demand is creating a challenging environment for the lumber market, leading to significant price increases that are expected to continue throughout the year. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Price Return Index – Best P/E Ratio During the recent market selloff, valuations of major tech companies have plummeted from their previous highs. Many traders believe the downward trend may continue, a sentiment supported by recent historical patterns. Image: Bloomberg
MSCI Ex-US Developed World Stock Price Index Relative to MSCI US Stock Price Index vs. US Real Dollar Index There is often an inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and international stock markets, meaning that a peak in the dollar could make international stocks more appealing to investors. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Gold Prices in 2024 U.S. Dollars The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by several factors including U.S. tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from global central banks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Capital Expenditure by Magnificent Seven Companies vs. Share Price Index Major U.S. tech companies are maintaining their focus on AI infrastructure investment, even as DeepSeek’s breakthroughs raise questions about spending sustainability. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Price vs. U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Since the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. breakeven inflation has closely tracked crude oil prices, reflecting the significant impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation expectations and overall economic conditions. Image: Bloomberg
January Barometer – S&P 500 Price Return Momentum often snowballs, regardless of timing. Bulls are smiling as a bullish January performance often sets a positive tone for the entire year in the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate For over two years, the S&P 500 has maintained a consistent trend channel, indicating a strong market despite concerns of potential overvaluation. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Price-to-Forward Earnings Ratios The U.S. stock market maintains a premium valuation compared to global markets, with the exception of India, leaving little room for error as it’s priced for perfection. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Energy Prices vs. Fed Rate Cuts Energy prices have historically risen after the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, suggesting that changes in the index may predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank