Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio By the Shiller CAPE’s measure, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere — the kind that’s thrilled investors on the way up, and burned them on the way down. It’s a level that has often meant thinner returns and rising risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin Price and 365-Day Moving Average A break below the 365-day moving average puts Bitcoin on the defensive. Add in thin dip demand, margin pressure, and souring sentiment, and the setup looks ripe for institutional players to stay sidelined until clarity emerges. Image: Bloomberg
Oil Prices in Euros Oil’s recent slide, fueled by rising OPEC output, is deepening bearish sentiment across energy markets and cooling the inflation pulse that guides monetary policy. Image: Deutsche Bank
Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Spot Price and Russell 3000 Gold Miners Subindustry Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold over the next 12 months, projecting a 14% rise driven by central bank demand and anticipated rate cuts, with even greater gains possible in riskier scenarios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and markets adjust accordingly. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Average S&P 500 Price Returns Following Sharp Increases in Speculative Trading Indicator Sharp increases in speculative trading activity serve as a leading indicator of a market cycle marked initially by above-average returns, followed later by a heightened risk of downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities – 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and Share Prices Market optimism is fueled by hopes of resolving trade and geopolitical risks, but high S&P 500 valuations increase vulnerability. Without resolution or robust earnings growth, the risk of a market pullback rises. Image: Deutsche Bank
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, with a subsequent decline to an annual average of $56 per barrel in 2026, as a result of rising global supply from OPEC+. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual Price Returns The S&P 500’s performance in 2025 so far aligns with median historical gains seen during non-recessionary periods. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, driven by moderate earnings growth and supportive monetary policy. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation