Buybacks Are the Source of the Rally in the Stock Market since 2009 But as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms, stock buybacks declined last quarter. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
China trade deal could spark a big rally, says Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. He comments on China trade talks and the effects on the stock market. He’s worry that the dollar has been very strong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7Y1id-I88I
Why Warren Buffett says that stocks are generally better than bonds? Our equity risk premium model shows when the US stock market return for the next 10 years is more or less attractive than the 10-Year Treasury Note. Since 1970, the 10-year Treasury Note was less attractive than the US stock market over a 10-year…
S&P 500 and Liquidity Increased aggregate U.S. liquidity generally acts as a tailwind for the stock market, potentially boosting equity prices—a dynamic currently reflected in the Liquidity Index. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns in July Historically, the U.S. stock market tends to peak around this time in July. Given both seasonal and technical patterns, it would be perfectly normal for the current powerful 26% rally off the April lows to take a pause. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Cycle Composite The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a less bullish period of the year, with 2025 so far following typical seasonal patterns: early strength, mid-year volatility, and a potential year-end rally. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The recent rally has made U.S. equities relatively expensive compared to bonds. Historically, when the risk premium has been at current levels, the S&P 500 has delivered an average 12-month return of only 2.5% over the past three decades. Image: Bloomberg
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Even with the recent rally and record highs in US equities, asset managers’ positions in U.S. equity futures are still lower than they were at the beginning of the year. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and VIX Although U.S. stocks are rallying and volatility remains low—reflecting market confidence—significant underlying threats from rising trade frictions and policy uncertainty persist. Image: Bloomberg
Indexed S&P 500 Return – Market Hours vs. Overnight Following the April market turmoil, most of the rally has happened during regular U.S. trading hours, with overnight returns remaining relatively muted. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Average Annual Inflation of 152 Countries Since 1971 The post-Bretton Woods monetary system features greater inflation variability and generally higher average inflation, making it difficult for countries to keep inflation consistently below 2% over the long term. Image: Deutsche Bank