S&P 500 Price Returns Relative to Onset of Next U.S. Recession The performance of the S&P 500 has generally been positive until six months prior to a recession. Image: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Past Global Recoveries This chart compares the S&P 500’s recent rally with past global recoveries. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Asset Correlations and Fed Balance Sheet Trends The correlations between U.S. asset returns and Fed balance sheet growth are generally inconsistent and dimishing over time. Image: J.P. Morgan
Percentage of Markets with Positive Return in Year Two Historically, markets have generally finished higher in year two given above-average return in year one. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and Average Bull Markets Chart showing the current S&P 500 rally compared to average bull markets since 1950. Image: The Leuthold Group
Equity Returns After The Fed Eases During Soft Patches In recent history, two years after the Fed eases during soft patches, equities rally by an average of about 40%. Image: Barclays Research
Range of Returns Two Years After Fed Rate Cut Historically, equities rally significally, when the Fed eases during soft patches. Image: Barclays Research
S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. High Bond Yield Spread Chart showing the current divergence between U.S. equities and high yield bond spreads, while they are generally correlated. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Russel 2000 and Unprofitable Small Caps The proportion of small caps that are unprofitable has climbed to nearly 30%. This level is generally only observed during recessions. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Liquidity Premium and IG Bonds The spread between low liquid and high liquid IG bonds is widening, despite the rally and the belief of an improvement in US-China trade tensions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research