AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings While AAII U.S. investor pessimism has eased to a 20-week low, bearish sentiment remains modestly elevated relative to historical averages, indicating that caution lingers even as market conditions improve. Image: The Daily Shot
Earnings Sentiment Current earnings sentiment is on an upward trajectory, with multiple indicators highlighting robust corporate performance and the potential for continued market growth. Image: TS Lombard
Sentiment – GS Business Optimism Tracker U.S. business optimism has seen a significant and widespread decline in early 2025, as multiple indicators and surveys report sharp drops in sentiment among CEOs, CFOs, and small business owners. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings > 50 The current AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish reading of 58.9% marks the 7th consecutive week above 50%, aligning with the record streak observed in October 1990, which coincided with a major market low. Image: The Daily Shot
Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately +125bps, with a positive hit rate of 70%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment (Retail & Institutional Composite) vs. S&P 500 Index Markets typically reach their correction lows when combined investor sentiment is extremely negative, setting the stage for a potential rebound. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – 5-Day Put/Call Volume Ratio The 5-day moving average of the put/call volume ratio has hit its lowest point since late 2021’s bull market peak. Sustained low readings in this ratio often indicate market tops and excessive optimism. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment – CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio The current U.S. equity put/call ratio indicates a broadly bullish sentiment, implying that investors are confident about the market’s future performance, for now. Image: The Daily Shot
Market Sentiment Indicator Morgan Stanley’s market sentiment indicator has recently turned positive, signaling a shift towards a risk-on appetite after maintaining a neutral stance. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Sentiment – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index In November, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 8 points to 101.7, driven by the recent election results, potentially boosting employment, investment, and economic activity. Image: J.P. Morgan
Sentiment – U.S. Composite Put/Call Ratio The sharp decline in the U.S. put/call ratio to very low levels signals widespread market complacency, as even typically anxious investors appear unworried. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management