Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity investors remain highly risk-averse in June 2025, with bearish short-term return expectations, largely driven by political and macroeconomic uncertainties. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Earnings Sentiment Current earnings sentiment is on an upward trajectory, with multiple indicators highlighting robust corporate performance and the potential for continued market growth. Image: TS Lombard
Global Risk Sentiment Indicators Sentiment indicators suggest a “Goldilocks” scenario for risk appetite—investors are cautiously optimistic, but not exuberant or fearful. Image: TS Lombard
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index When investor sentiment reaches extremely negative levels-like those seen recently-such conditions have historically coincided with, or occurred near, market bottoms. Image: Real Investment Advice
Combined AAII & II Sentiment The current elevated bearish sentiment in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys is still signaling a potential bullish opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: Topdown Charts
Sentiment – GS Business Optimism Tracker U.S. business optimism has seen a significant and widespread decline in early 2025, as multiple indicators and surveys report sharp drops in sentiment among CEOs, CFOs, and small business owners. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. S&P 500 Current low levels of the Sentiment/VIX Composite Index tend to coincide with market lows, indicating potential buying opportunities rather than the onset of larger market reversions. Image: Real Investment Advice
AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish Readings > 50 The current AAII U.S. Investor Sentiment Bearish reading of 58.9% marks the 7th consecutive week above 50%, aligning with the record streak observed in October 1990, which coincided with a major market low. Image: The Daily Shot
Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately +125bps, with a positive hit rate of 70%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment (Retail & Institutional Composite) vs. S&P 500 Index Markets typically reach their correction lows when combined investor sentiment is extremely negative, setting the stage for a potential rebound. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Percentile of Sentiment Indicators While sentiment and positioning were highly bullish at the end of 2024, recent setbacks have emerged. The resurgence of “Trumponomics” has increased volatility, prompting investors to adopt more defensive strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research