Is Inflation Dead?

Is Inflation Dead? Is this cover of Bloomberg Businessweek a contrarian indicator? Remember that dinosaurs evolved into birds over 50 million years. Do you think we will have to wait 50 million years for inflation to return? You may also like “How to Get Inflation?” and “Where Does Inflation Come From?“ Image: Bloomberg

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index

GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Easing financial conditions provide a tailwind to U.S. economic growth by supporting consumers and businesses. However, ongoing vigilance regarding inflation risks remains necessary. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions

Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions While rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures and pose risks to economic growth, data suggest that current oil prices do not point toward a U.S. recession. Image: Real Investment Advice

WTI Oil Prices in Real Terms

The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the general rate of inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank

Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year

Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could change quickly in response to upcoming inflation data or shifts in the economic landscape, but for now, traders are pricing in almost two rate cuts before the end of 2025. Image: Bloomberg

Fed Rate Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures

Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves room for stronger monetary support if economic conditions worsen. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC

WTI Oil Prices

WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Term Premium The increasing term premium signals that investors require greater compensation for the risks inherent in holding longer-term bonds, reflecting increased concerns about interest rate and inflation over longer durations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no consistently clear or stable relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation is dynamic and shaped by various economic factors, including inflation, interest rates, and credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Impact of Higher Tariffs on the U.S. Core PCE Price Index

Impact of Higher Tariffs on the U.S. Core PCE Price Index The coming inflation rebound is expected be limited in scope and duration, meaning it is unlikely to trigger the kind of persistent inflation psychology that can drive a sustained wage-price spiral. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research