U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the high-inflation periods of the past half-century. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20

Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. CEO Confidence Index

U.S. CEO Confidence Index The sharp decline in U.S. CEO optimism in 2025 is largely attributed to new tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, inflation, and unpredictable government actions, reversing the post-election optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan

Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth

Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth The U.S. stock market’s recent underperformance is expected to reduce the wealth effect, turning it from a boost to a drag on consumption and increasing the risk of a broader economic slowdown as consumer spending weakens. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Sensitivity of S&P 500 Returns to EPS and P/E Scenario

Sensitivity of S&P 500 Returns to EPS and P/E Scenario Goldman Sachs projects S&P 500 EPS at $253 for 2025, driven by economic slowdowns, tariff pressures, and inflationary risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day February’s CPI inflation drops to 2.8%, beating the 2.9% forecast. On CPI days, bulls are like kids in a candy store, while bears sit in the corner, sulking like they forgot their party hats! Happy Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Federal Funds Rate and ECB Deposit Rate

Federal Funds Rate and ECB Deposit Rate Unlike the recent past, when inflation was high and interest rates were near zero, the Fed and ECB now have greater flexibility to cut rates if economic conditions worsen. Image: Deutsche Bank

Gold Consecutives Weekly Gains

Gold Consecutives Weekly Gains A perfect storm of factors—including inflation worries, robust central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and favorable monetary policies—has propelled gold prices upward for eight consecutive weeks. Image: The Daily Shot

Fed Balance Sheet

Fed Balance Sheet The ongoing reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to reduce bank reserves. This reduction may lead to higher inflation, increased real yields, and a steeper yield curve. Image: TS Lombard