Gold vs. U.S. 10-Year Real Yield
Gold vs. U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The chart shows the nice correlation between the U.S. 10-year real yield (inverted) and the price of gold as a defensive asset Image: Saxo Bank
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator
U.S. Business Cycle Indicator The Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is still in “downturn.” The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle
ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model
Percentage of U.S. States with Rising Unemployment vs. NY Fed Recession Probability Model The NY Fed recession probability model could suggest an increase in the percentage of U.S. states with rising unemployment over the next 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First-Rate Cut
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First-Rate Cut After the first-rate cut, the S&P 500’s performance is much better in mid-cycle than in late-cycle. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits
Equity Market Driven by Bonds Not Profits The chart shows a widening gap between cyclicals and bond proxies. It is clearly a cyclical bear market within a bull market, as during the dotcom bubble. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Gold vs. Real U.S. Rates
Gold vs. Real U.S. Rates The chart shows the nice correlation between real U.S. rates (inverted) and the price of gold as a defensive asset. Image: Richardson Wealth
Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks
Countries With the Highest Housing Bubble Risks Detecting and measuring asset bubbles is not always an easy task, but in many countries, housing prices are rising faster than rental rates. Image: Visual Capitalist
U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence
U.S. Output Gap vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence Great chart showing the strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence and the U.S. Output Gap. U.S. consumer confidence always peaks before a recession. Image: Pictet Asset Management