What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming?

What Indicators to Watch for Signs a U.S. Recession Is Coming? 1) In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields turns negative (red arrow). When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term…

VIX & Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007

VIX & Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This chart also shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most interesting spreads to watch. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. Image:…

Treasury Options and Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007

Treasury Options and Yield Curve Cycle Since 2007 This great chart shows that we are in a late business cycle. The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the most interesting spreads to watch. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts.…

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming

One of the Best Yield Curves to Predict a Recession is Coming The spread between the 30-year and the 3-month treasury yields is one of the best recession signal of all the yield spreads. In recent history, a recession occurs about 12 to 18 months after the yield curve inverts. When an inverted yield curve…

Why the Current Business Cycle Can Continue?

Why the Current Business Cycle Can Continue? Even if we are in a late business cycle, real Fed funds rate is near zero, the Fed remains “patient” at the moment and has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. The 30-Year Treasury Rate minus 10-Year Treasury Rate spread has a normal upward…

Yield Curve Inversion

Yield Curve Inversion A yield curve inversion is a necessary condition for a recession, but it is not a sufficient condition. We also need a widening of credit spreads and higher real interest rates. And currently, the long end of the yield curve has a normal upward slope. You may also like “Why the Current Business…