Central Banks Balance Sheet

Central Banks Balance Sheet Despite years of monetary policy easing, central banks are still missing their inflation goals. Image: Financial Times

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth According to Gavekal, Chinese monetary policy is still in a moderate “selective easing” mode. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Central Bank Balance Sheet to GDP Ratios

Central Bank Balance Sheet to GDP Ratios Central bank balance sheet to GDP ratios, influenced by monetary policy, vary from one economy to another. Image: Bianco Research

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate

Yield Curve vs. Real Fed Funds Rate In modern history, every recession was preceded by an inverted yield curve and high real interest rates. When an inverted yield curve occurs, short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. It suggests that the long-term economic outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income securities will…

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate

Real GDP vs. Real Fed Funds Rate One of our most favorite charts is the real GDP vs. the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation). Historically, recessions begin when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that today. So, this cycle should not end any time soon. Real Fed…

Real Fed Funds Rate

Real Fed Funds Rate Real Fed funds rate is a key indicative factor, because it’s a very good measure of how tight or loose monetary policy is. Real Fed funds rate is the “true cost” of borrowing money. Recessions have always been preceded by a substantial tightening of monetary policy, which, in real terms, matter…

Earnings – STOXX Europe 600 EPS Level

Earnings – STOXX Europe 600 EPS Level Thanks to an accomodative monetary and fiscal policy, the STOXX Europe 600 EPS is growing much faster than during the last cycle (2007-2019). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 vs. U.S. Dollar Index

S&P 500 vs. U.S. Dollar Index A bearish trend for the U.S. dollar? Low U.S. interest rates, monetary and fiscal policy, are likely going to be a weight on the U.S. dollar. Image: Morgan Stanley Research