Commodity Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1937 The chart shows that commodity stock prices have never been more depressed relative to the stock market. This Commodity Stock Index aligns with S&P North American Natural Resource Stock Index. Image: Goehring & Rozencwajg
Commercial and Industrial Loans Continue to Accelerate in the U.S. That’s a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. banks wouldn’t be lending if they were concerned about the economic situation. Past three recessions saw bank loans negative year over year.
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity weakened further in December, as the ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 47.9, short of expectations for 48.3, marking another month of contraction and lingering softness across the industrial sector. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index…
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.94%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Equity Sector Flows Money keeps flowing into industrials and financials, while energy and health care still see pronounced outflows. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Interest Rate Cuts Resume When the Fed delivered just one or two rate cuts after pausing—seen in four different cycles—the U.S. economy was typically strong, with cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials outperforming the broader market. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the past three months, the Financial, Industrial, and Information Technology sectors have been at the forefront of buyback announcements, driving a major portion of repurchase activity in the U.S. market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain positive. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Returns the First 100 Days of a New Term The S&P 500’s 7.8% decline during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office represents the worst start to a president’s term since Richard Nixon’s in 1973. Image: Yahoo Finance
Tariffs and U.S. Government Revenues Tariffs played a crucial role in the early industrialization of the United States, but their effectiveness in today’s global economy are potentially detrimental as they act as an economic drag, hurting more industries than they help. Image: Deutsche Bank
Loan Demand Demand for commercial & industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) loans remains weak, which does not bode well for a soft landing. Image: BofA Global Research