Commodity Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1937 The chart shows that commodity stock prices have never been more depressed relative to the stock market. This Commodity Stock Index aligns with S&P North American Natural Resource Stock Index. Image: Goehring & Rozencwajg
Commercial and Industrial Loans Continue to Accelerate in the U.S. That’s a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. banks wouldn’t be lending if they were concerned about the economic situation. Past three recessions saw bank loans negative year over year.
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The Energy sector still looks cheap versus other sectors, while Industrials already seem to have priced in plenty of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Sector Flows Money is still flooding into tech, industrials and real estate. Investors are chasing visible growth, hard assets and direct exposure to AI and infrastructure demand. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.54%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows Industrial funds have seen a surge in inflows over the past year, outpacing every other sector and showing no sign of losing momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Win Streaks If February ends in the green, the Dow would notch 10 straight monthly gains, a streak seen only a handful of times since 1900. That strength says plenty about the market’s staying power. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Interest Rate Cuts Resume When the Fed delivered just one or two rate cuts after pausing—seen in four different cycles—the U.S. economy was typically strong, with cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials outperforming the broader market. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the past three months, the Financial, Industrial, and Information Technology sectors have been at the forefront of buyback announcements, driving a major portion of repurchase activity in the U.S. market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain positive. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Returns the First 100 Days of a New Term The S&P 500’s 7.8% decline during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office represents the worst start to a president’s term since Richard Nixon’s in 1973. Image: Yahoo Finance