S&P 500 Largest Pullbacks in the First Five Months of Each Year

S&P 500 Largest Pullbacks in the First Five Months of Each Year Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has performed the first five months of the year without a decline of at least a 2.5% pullback only once in 1995. Is a pullback for U.S. stocks approaching? Image: J.P. Morgan See S&P 500 Intra-Year…

Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward

Big Starts to a Year Can Produce Weak Results Going Forward While new all-time highs and consecutive winning streaks can produce above-average returns in the longer term, pullbacks are possible in the short term. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this Year“…

6-Month Returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018

6-Month Returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018 The next 6 months have been the worst on average. Here is the 6-Month returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this…

Only 11% of Asset Classes Have Posted Negative Total Returns in 2019

Only 11% of Asset Classes Have Posted Negative Total Returns in 2019 The rally is back, but for how long? According to Deutsche Bank AG, 90% of 70 financial asset classes posted positive total returns. Data for 2019 are through April. Picture Source: The Wall Street Journal

Is U.S. Household Debt a Problem?

Is U.S. Household Debt a Problem? Not really, right now. Actually, the level of household debt alone does not tell an accurate picture of the current situation. However, U.S. household debt to GDP is much lower, U.S. household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income  and U.S. household financial obligations as a percent…

Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says?

Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says? Well, in 2018, China was selling its US Treasury securities. In 2019, it’s just the opposite. Not bad! Why? It is not obvious, but China could use the dollars elsewhere, in Middle East countries for oil supplies, instead of buying US Treasury securities. Image: Ryan Detrick,…

Does Berkshire Hathaway Still Have a Market-Beating Advantage Over the Long Run?

Does Berkshire Hathaway Still Have a Market-Beating Advantage Over the Long Run? We can ask ourselves if Berkshire Hathaway does still have a market-beating advantage over the long run, because Warren Buffett expects a very modest outperformance vs. the market over the next decade. But he can’t guarantee that, of course. Image: Financial Times

Why U.S. Productivity Is Lower Than In Previous Business Cycles?

Why U.S. Productivity Is Lower Than Previous Business Cycles? The real yield is the most important measure of financial tightness. But as the real yield is near zero, artificially low interest rates are then associated with unnecessary debt, zombie firms and lower productivity than previous business cycles. Zombie firms cannot invest, innovate and increase productivity. …