10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…
6-Month Returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018 The next 6 months have been the worst on average. Here is the 6-Month returns for the S&P 500 Index from 1950 to 2018. Our previous two articles: “Sell in May and Go Away?” and “Sell in May and Go Away? Maybe Not this…
Only 11% of Asset Classes Have Posted Negative Total Returns in 2019 The rally is back, but for how long? According to Deutsche Bank AG, 90% of 70 financial asset classes posted positive total returns. Data for 2019 are through April. Picture Source: The Wall Street Journal
The Long-Term Impact of Compounded Returns The amount earned from compounding grows exponentially over time. Successful investing is all about patience and discipline. So, a lack of patience and investment discipline may impact long-term returns. And keep in mind that the power compounding only works if you do not lose capital during the investment horizon. What about compound…
John Rogers, Founder of $12 Billion Ariel Investments, Breaks Down His Firm’s Market-Beating Returns John Rogers speaks about its firm’s success and his investments during the great recession. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYImHeH1I0U
S&P 500 EPS Lower earnings could lead to lower U.S. stock market returns. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Performance – U.S. vs. Developed Market (Ex-U.S.) Will developed market equities (ex-U.S.) continue to outperform U.S. equities? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Price Target Should U.S. equity investors expect moderate returns over the next two years? Image: KKR & Co.
Commodities – Performance of the S&P GSCI Across Supercycles Goldman Sachs expects the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index to return 43% in 2023. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median S&P 500 Index Move Around Last Fed Hike Historically, the S&P 500 Index’s median return exceeds 5% about 22 weeks after the final Fed hike. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management