Search Results for: return

Valuation – MSCI U.S. P/E Ratio U.S. equity valuations are at high levels, suggesting future returns could be lower than historical averages. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Risk Appetite Indicator Level – Drawdowns and Up Moves Time to reduce risk? When the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) level is above 1, near-term returns tend to be lower on average, with larger drawdowns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Volatility – Daily S&P 500 Closing Change > 1% or < -1% The S&P 500 Total Return has gained 18.40% in 2020, despite above average volatility. Image: Ken Fisher, Fisher Investments

Median S&P 500 Trajectory After Declines in the VIX to Below 20 S&P 500 returns tend to accelerate when the VIX drops below 20 level. Image: Nomura

U.S. Equity Risk Premium and VIX The U.S. equity risk premium remains above its long-term average, but the risk-adjusted return of equity has dropped below its long-term avearge this year. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation

Bull-Bear GDP Growth Forecasts The bull case scenario consists of a more accommodative fiscal policy and a faster return to normal with a vaccine broadly available more quickly. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) and EMU vs. U.S. Mobility EUR/USD could drop further, as lockdowns return to Europe. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

S&P 500 Average Performance through the Presidential Cycle 1872-2020 Historically, S&P 500 returns have been much better when a Democrat held the presidency. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Performance from Inauguration Day Chart showing the S&P 500 performance across different presidencies, from Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump. From 1928 to 2019, S&P 500 annual returns were positive 72% of the time. Image: Financial Times

Five Largest Stocks vs. S&P 500 The five largest stocks have returned +39% YTD, while the remaining 495 stocks have returned -1%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research