Risk-Adjusted Returns Across the Treasury Strips Curve The distribution of strong returns across the Treasury curve has become very tight. Historically, this marks the beginning of the end. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than the overall S&P 500 average.
S&P 500 Total Return and U.S. High Yield/High Grade Usually, flight to quality in credit markets is rarely a good sign for equities, but ECB QE, Fed easing and repo operations should be positive. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 Return – Longest Bull Markets Ever Chart showing the longest equity bull markets ever. October 9, 2019 was the bottom in 2002 and peak in 2007. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
U.S. ISM Recovery and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession After a recession, U.S. equities tend to perform well during ISM recoveries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ISM Contraction and Returns: Recession vs. No Recession If there is no recession, U.S. equities tend to perform well during ISM contractions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns Driven by Central Banks? This chart suggests that equity and credit markets are no longer driven by fundamentals, at the moment. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Global Manufacturing PMI and Multi-Asset Portfolio Returns This chart suggests that markets have not taken into account this year’s growth and profits slump. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Currency Impact on International Returns (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.) Chart showing the currency impact on the MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. Index. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Annual S&P 500 Return Since 1990 Currently, the S&P 500 Index has its best year since 1997. Image: Financial Times
S&P 500 LTM Return On Equity (ROE) The S&P 500 LTM Return On Equity (ROE) gives a picture of corporate profitability and remains high relative to history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research