S&P 500 – U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past 22 Presidents Nearly a year into Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 has surged more than 16%, shaking off tariff headwinds. Bulls are smiling, betting on robust earnings and solid economic data to keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years are rarely smooth sailing for U.S. stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has on average tumbled 17.5% from its highs, the sharpest swoon in the four-year presidential cycle. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years rarely bring comfort to investors, but history still leans bullish. U.S. stocks tend to outperform in a President’s second term, as many view market dips as buying opportunities before the usual third-year rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Annualized 1-Month Volatility In this post-election year, the current period indicates increased volatility ahead for U.S. stocks, reinforcing the need for cautious risk management during this sensitive stage of the cycle. Image: Nautilus Research
S&P 500 Monthly Rank Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks—this holds true for the past 10 years, 20 years, and going back to 1950. It is rare to see both August and September finish higher in a post-election year. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with fewer than two sectors doing so. Image: Hi Mount Research
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this July would tie the longest winning streak for the month. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns Final Six Months When Up >10% at Midpoint of Year Bulls are smiling again, as December has been the cheerleader of the U.S. stock market since WWII—always positive in election years when the S&P 500 is up 10% or more at the midpoint! Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Target Following the U.S. elections, strategist Ed Yardeni has raised his S&P 500 targets to 6,100 for 2024, 7,000 for 2025, 8,000 for 2026, and predicts it will reach 10,000 by the end of the decade. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Weekly % Changes The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain of 2024 and its third-strongest Presidential Election week since 1928, rising 4.7% as investors cheered Donald Trump’s victory and the prospect of business-friendly policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Performance the Year After a Negative Midterm Year Given that U.S. stocks have consistently performed well in pre-election and election years following a negative midterm year since 1950, investors may have reason to remain optimistic about 2024. Image: Carson Investment Research