S&P 500 Weekly % Changes The S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain of 2024 and its third-strongest Presidential Election week since 1928, rising 4.7% as investors cheered Donald Trump’s victory and the prospect of business-friendly policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Seasonality From Election Day in November to the end of the year, the S&P 500 index has historically seen a median return of 4%, reflecting a seasonal pattern where investor optimism and holiday spending boost market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance the Year After a Negative Midterm Year Given that U.S. stocks have consistently performed well in pre-election and election years following a negative midterm year since 1950, investors may have reason to remain optimistic about 2024. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Monthly Returns and Percentage of Time Up – Presidential Cycle Year 4 Seasonality provides valuable insights into stock market trends. Historically, after experiencing weaknesses in September and October during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rebound with strong returns in November and December. Image: BofA Global Research
EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle While election results can impact markets in the short term, the underlying profitability of companies is a stronger driver of stock prices over time. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Seasonality – Average Annualized S&P 500 Price Return by Month BofA’s strategists are cautioning investors about the potential for significant market corrections in the near term, driven by weak seasonal patterns and the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonal Returns and Presidential Cycle Year 4 June to August historically shines during election years, as it represents the strongest 3-month period in the fourth year of the presidential cycle, up 75% of the time with an average return of 7.27% since 1928. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, expects the S&P 500 index to generate a total return of 6% in 2024, which is slightly below the average return typically observed during presidential election years.
S&P 500 Performance in June In the past, when the S&P 500 has increased by more than 8% year-to-date heading into June in a pre-election year, positive outcomes have typically occurred in June. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance November – April During Midterm Years Historically, the six months from November through April have seen the best performance for U.S. stocks following midterm elections. Image: Carson Investment Research