Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) Leads Global Manufacturing PMI by Three Months This chart suggests that the rally in semiconductor stocks may herald a global growth rebound. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Investor Allocation by Region in the U.S. This chart is a good example of investment bias and shows the likelihood of owning stocks in an industry vs. national average. Picture Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Correlation Between S&P 500 and U.S. Treasuries This chart shows the correlation between stocks and bonds, which could affect a balanced 60/40 portfolio. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Yield Curve and Growth/Value P/E Ratio The chart below shows that the shape of yield curve explains nearly 50% of the variation in value vs. growth multiples. Actually, when the U.S. economy is sluggish, investors prefer growth stocks. Image: BlackRock, Inc.
Will Value Ever Outperform Growth? When the U.S. economy is weak, investors prefer growth stocks. But value could outperform again, when the U.S. economy will be stronger. Image: Ned Davis Research
Growth Has Outperformed Value Since 2015 Is is time for value stocks to shine? Actually, tech stocks contribute to widening the gap between growth and value. Image: Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Margin Debt and S&P 500 This chart shows that margin debt has not recovered from last December’s lows, while the stock market has risen sharply.Usually, it is mostly bullish for stocks, because investors are still fearful. Image: Yardeni Research, Inc.
MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. and S&P 500 Index U.S. equities have significantly outperformed the rest of the world in recent years, but this has not always been the case. You may also like “Trailing 12-month Return Differential between U.S. and non-U.S. Stocks.” Image: ClearBridge Investments
S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield since 2009 This chart shows the gap between S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10-year Treasury yield since 2009. Keep in mind that investing is not just a competition between stocks and bonds. But for the first time since 2017, the dividend yield on US stocks is equal…
10-Year Treasury minus 1-Year Treasury Yield Spread vs. S&P 500 Returns If history helps us to predict the future, the 10y-1y treasury yield spread suggests low returns ahead for U.S. stocks. After 10 years of a bull market, our stock market forecasting model also shows that the market follows a different path in 2019. Statistically,…
The Rise of ETFs May Distort the Stock Market Vanguard holds more than a 5% stake in 99.8% S&P 500 stocks. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch