Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market?

Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market? American institutions and individual investors are big holders. A large part of the treasury market is also owned by foreigners. Picture source: Bianco Research

U.S. Composite Recession Probability

U.S. Composite Recession Probability How far is the U.S. recession? Currently, the Composite Recession Probability stands at 19.6%. Historically, the probability of recession increases, when the recession rate exceeds 30%. Picture source: BofA Merrill Lynch

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 0.48%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history tells us that the probability of recession is increasing. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate

Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth is 1.8% for 2019:Q3 as of October 16, 2019. Picture source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession

U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In September, U.S. real retail sales dropped, but the trend remains up. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.

U.S. Recessions by Decade

U.S. Recessions by Decade This could be the first decade in history wherein the U.S. economy doesn’t experience a recession. Picture source: Crestmont Research

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model

U.S. Retail Sales and Food Services vs. Fair Value Model After disappointing U.S. retail sales in September, this chart provides a good forward guide for U.S. consumer spending. The Fair Value Model leads consumption and includes: ASA Staffing Index (temps), spread between good unemployment (job leavers) and bad unemployment (job losers), and forward-looking income expectations.…