U.S. Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average The DXY dollar’s current position well below its 200-day moving average marks a rare bearish phase, the likes of which have not been seen in two decades, signaling a challenging environment for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 83.84, the Market Greed/Fear Index signals extreme greed in the U.S. stock market, raising concerns about overconfidence. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Image: Bloomberg
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio vs. MSCI World Ex-U.S. Forward P/E Ratio U.S. equities currently trade at roughly a 50% premium over international stocks, fueled by stronger earnings growth, greater profitability, and investors’ willingness to pay extra for these advantages. Image: Bloomberg
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.19% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects U.S. real GDP will expand at a 2.6% annualized rate in Q2 2025, reflecting a robust recovery from the previous quarter’s decline. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability suggests a modestly elevated risk of a U.S. recession within the next year, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is about 22x, higher than its historical average. While this indicates optimism, it also means the market is more vulnerable to earnings disappointments, increasing potential risks ahead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research