U.S. Money Supply M2 Growth

U.S. Money Supply M2 Growth U.S. money supply M2 growth is going parabolic compared to the global financial crisis. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Growth Stocks P/E Ratio: 1987-2009 vs. 2008-2020

U.S. Growth Stocks P/E Ratio: 1987-2009 vs. 2008-2020 Are growth stocks overvalued? This chart shows the P/E ratio on growth stocks during the dotcom bubble compared to the period 2008-2020. Image: Alpine Macro

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Currently, the probability of recession is 0.60%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four…

U.S. GDP Growth Forecast Until 2021

U.S. GDP Growth Forecast Until 2021 Goldman Sachs expects slower U.S. growth in the third quarter, due to the recent increase in coronavirus cases in the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Dollar and “Death Cross”

U.S. Dollar and “Death Cross” The “death cross” strikes the U.S. dollar. Image: The Daily Shot – The Wall Street Journal

Blended Money Supply vs. U.S. Nominal GDP

Blended Money Supply vs. U.S. Nominal GDP Historically, U.S. nominal GDP growth tends to track money supply growth. More inflation to come? Image: Deutsche Bank