Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 25.6% in June. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio vs. MSCI World Ex-U.S. Forward P/E Ratio U.S. equities currently trade at roughly a 50% premium over international stocks, fueled by stronger earnings growth, greater profitability, and investors’ willingness to pay extra for these advantages. Image: Bloomberg
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.19% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects U.S. real GDP will expand at a 2.6% annualized rate in Q2 2025, reflecting a robust recovery from the previous quarter’s decline. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability suggests a modestly elevated risk of a U.S. recession within the next year, slightly above its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is about 22x, higher than its historical average. While this indicates optimism, it also means the market is more vulnerable to earnings disappointments, increasing potential risks ahead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Easing financial conditions provide a tailwind to U.S. economic growth by supporting consumers and businesses. However, ongoing vigilance regarding inflation risks remains necessary. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 1.64%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 83.84, the Market Greed/Fear Index signals extreme greed in the U.S. stock market, raising concerns about overconfidence. Image: Real Investment Advice