U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales and Recessions U.S. heavy trucks sales declined in November to 462K (annualized). Historically, before recessions and bear markets, heavy truck sales tend to peak and then decline. You may also like “Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator.”
U.S. Labor Market Distributions Spider Chart The U.S. labor market distributions spider chart shows broad labor market developments. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment and U3 Unemployment Rate Oxford Economics expects 24 million jobs lost in the U.S. and unemployment rate spiking to 14%. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Stocks Total Return and 4-Year Moving Average Is the secular bull market intact? There’s a possibility, if it remains above its 4-year moving average. Image: The Atlas Investor
Buybacks and Cumulative U.S. Equity Demand by Source Lower equity valuations and higher volatility could reduce buybacks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Trajectory Bank of America expects U.S. GDP to grow in the fourth quarter of 2020, but believes in a slow recovery. Image: BofA Global Research
Cumulative Decline in U.S. Real GDP during Previous Recessions Bank of America sees a -10.4% cumulative decline in U.S. real GDP this year. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Federal Government Debt Held by the Public in % of GDP The U.S. federal government debt is on track to balloon to World War II levels. Image: CommerzBank Research
U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and U.S. GDP (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index is at the lowest level since 2009 and tends to lead U.S. GDP by 5 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Debt and Deficits in Euro Area and U.S. Debt and deficits in the euro area and in the United States are expected to increase significantly. Image: Deutsche Bank Research