Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 30-Day Correlation Correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to multi-year highs recently. Yet, as macroeconomic factors change and Bitcoin develops as an asset class, this correlation with traditional equities may decrease. Image: Bloomberg
Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields A rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields typically leads to lower equity valuations, with the impact most acute for high-priced, growth-oriented companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Company Actual vs. Modeled FY2 P/E Ratio Valuations for the Magnificent Seven now sit slightly below modeled fair value, especially in light of their robust fundamentals and earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Target for 2025 In the coming months, robust earnings, a weaker dollar, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and easing recession fears are expected to make U.S. equities a key driver of the global equity rally. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Dollar DXY Index Deviation from PPP Fair Value and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Return By most measures, the U.S. dollar remains overvalued-even after its recent declines-and appears poised for a secular decline. Image: Bloomberg
The U.S. Dollar and Reserve Status Could the U.S. dollar lose its status as the world’s dominant reserve currency? Historically, leading reserve currencies have held their status for about a hundred years. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Ex. Financials – Net Leverage and Interest Coverage Since the Global Financial Crisis, there has been a sharp increase in the median S&P 500 stock’s leverage ratio, a trend that could have substantial effects on market risk and volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 12-Month Forward STOXX Europe 600 PE European stocks look less expensive than at the beginning of this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Outstanding Short Interest Elevated short interest in both ETFs and single stocks generally signals increased bearish sentiment or heightened hedging activity in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg