U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Wednesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up…

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar Inflation may feel abstract, but its impact isn’t: History shows the U.S. dollar has lost about 90% of its purchasing power since 1966. Only assets that outpace rising prices,…

U.S. Inflation: 1970 vs. Today The modern economy shows greater resilience to inflation pressures compared to the 1970s, but whether it avoids stagflation depends on how long the current geopolitical conflict lasts. Image: Deutsche Bank

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Geopolitical tensions are clouding sentiment among U.S. equity fund managers in March, but confidence in the market and the economy remains intact, as many bet…

Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count It’s too soon to call it a return to normal, but some ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz and policymakers talking about resumption are…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.38% YoY in February. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

U.S. Public Opinion on Military Action in Iran Rising U.S. gasoline prices, together with the pushback against strikes on Iran, could push policymakers toward a brief and contained conflict. Image: J.P. Morgan

Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals have become as pricey as defensives, leaving them vulnerable if confidence falters. Higher energy costs or trade disruptions could worsen the pressure by dampening activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 16%, only a touch…

Equity Positioning Equity positioning has edged just below neutral, opening the door to further upside if momentum kicks in. For now, that spark is missing. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Risk Appetite Indicator Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator has slipped after recent events, sitting just below neutral, as markets take a more defensive stance. Market sentiment has clearly cooled amid growing uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs…