U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing down just 0.10%.…
Where Every S&P 500 Dollar Goes 18 cents of every S&P 500 dollar now goes to semiconductors, 33 cents to the Mag 7, and 40 cents to the ten largest holdings. Passive money does not…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns The S&P 500 is down about 3% this month, with the so-called June swoon back in play. Midterm years tend to amplify the softness. July, however, has…
Cash Held by U.S. Households Equity inflows are drawing support from the cash buffers U.S. households amassed during the pandemic, with a large share of those savings yet to be deployed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
Hyperscaler Capex, EBITDA and Net Buybacks Hyperscaler capex is outpacing earnings and starting to bite. Buybacks are slipping as cash is redirected into AI infrastructure, setting up a tradeoff: more upside later, less cash in…
Gold Futures Gold’s 2026 gains have evaporated as sentiment flipped from rate cuts to higher-for-longer expectations. A stronger U.S. dollar is adding pressure, while forced selling to cover losses elsewhere is accelerating the selloff. Image:…
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.5%, keeping the expansion narrative intact. This cycle still has room…
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Crypto funds have faced persistent outflows since May, driven largely by selling in Bitcoin vehicles as investor appetite cools. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Mega-cap growth and tech positioning sits near neutral at the 48th percentile, far from crowded levels and leaving room for potential upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator is back in stretched territory as investors flock to higher-risk bets. Riding the upside can pay off, until the crowd is caught in…
Cumulative Global Equity Fund Flows Across Regions U.S. equity inflows are holding up well and have picked up pace in recent months, adding fuel to the market’s upward momentum. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research