U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday last week, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up…

Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth After years of Fed support, investors have been trained to buy every dip, a habit that has left U.S.…

Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years are rarely smooth sailing for U.S. stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has…

Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment Sitting at 44, the Fear & Greed Index points to more hesitation than optimism among market participants. Image: Cable News Network

S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle In 2024 and 2025, the S&P 500 danced to the beat of the four-year election cycle. Is 2026 when the music changes? Image: Nautilus Research

Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply U.S. market capitalization has surged since late 2022, lifting valuations far beyond what M2 growth alone can explain. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields When US Treasury yields rise quickly, equity valuations usually fall hardest among high-growth, richly priced names. One risk for 2026 is a sudden…

S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 rose 17.9% in 2025, including dividends. Buying the dip proved to be a winning strategy again, as every pullback quickly turned into another leg higher, pushing the index to…

Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The dominant macro theme for 2026 is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have laid the groundwork for renewed economic…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 92.93, active managers are keeping their chips on U.S. equities and backing momentum to carry them higher. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure…

Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Traders are sticking to expectations for two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, even as Fed projections reveal deep splits. The easing drive has lost some steam,…