U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At the close Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, and the S&P 500 followed through on Wednesday, closing…

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) Relative to Cap-Weight S&P 500 (SPY) As megacap leadership fades, market breadth is improving. This isn’t an outflow from equities. It’s just a rotation out of concentration. Image: Real Investment Advice

The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections History has been kind to investors after midterms. In all 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 has been higher nine…

Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What once mirrored the market now drives it. The top 10 S&P 500 stocks make up 38% of the…

S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years often bring a bump in S&P 500 volatility, as investors wait to see who controls Congress and what that means…

Valuation – Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio On the Shiller CAPE, U.S. stocks are back in the stratosphere, the kind that thrills investors on the way up and has a habit of burning them…

Median Monthly Flow into Equity Mutual Funds and ETFs as a % of Total AUM August rivals May as the worst month for equity outflows from mutual funds and ETFs. As geopolitical risk builds, should…

U.S. Tech Sector Flows Despite the pullback in tech names, the money isn’t leaving: Tech inflows persist and semi ETFs are still seeing heavy volume. This looks like a consolidation, not the end of the…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks cheap relative to other sectors, while Industrials seem priced for a lot of good news already. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) On a 10-year rolling annualized basis, U.S. equities have outperformed bonds by one of the widest margins since the 1920s and 1950s. Image:…

Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Momentum has given back more than it typically does after a big run. There may still be room for another leg lower, but with the pullback…