U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing down just…

Semiconductors as a Share of the S&P 500 The market’s weak spot is concentration. Semiconductors have climbed to 18.8% of the S&P 500, a record and more than twice their dot-com era peak. One miss…

S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up 5% to 10% by midyear, it has finished the year higher 93.8% of…

Gold Drawdown from Its Trailing Previous Peak Gold has just suffered one of its steepest pullbacks in more than a decade. The drop looks less like the start of a lasting reversal and more like…

Different Market Sentiment Indicators With volatility easing, market sentiment is turning more bullish, but still far from euphoric, leaving room for more upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.42% from 2.45% last week, leaving the broader growth narrative intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.44%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has pulled back from extreme levels, but it still points to a market leaning risk-on rather than turning bearish. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

YTD Cumulative Global Fund Flows into U.S. Equities U.S. equity inflows have been running hot this year, with leveraged bets on U.S. exceptionalism still firmly in place. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Expectations are running high: analysts see S&P 500 earnings jumping 24% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, with small caps set to steal the spotlight, posting 41% growth this year and…

Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 The Mag-7 has weighed on U.S. indices since October 2025, with selling pressure accelerating in June as investors began to question returns…