U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two weeks ago Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending…
S&P 500 Reported Earnings, Inflation-Adjusted to 2026 Dollars S&P 500 earnings just broke a 90‑year trend channel. Can profits stay this hot? The risk is a mean reversion that leaves current multiples looking far too…
S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks still look pricey, but earnings are growing fast enough to justify the bill. As long as profits keep surprising, the extra valuation is…
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Small caps look poised to lead on earnings growth, with profits expected to jump 36% this year and 48% in 2027, compared with 33% and 15% for the S&P 500. Image:…
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers has taken a sharp hit in September, as the conflict in the Middle East fuels concerns about its…
Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary positioning is still well behind earnings growth, leaving stocks room to keep climbing. With supportive revisions and contained macro risks, more cash is likely to flow into equities. Image:…
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have steadily increased their equity exposure in recent months. But with positioning now at the 89th percentile, the trade is starting to look crowded. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to remain resilient through 2027 and 2028, with the Fed delivering 75bps of tightening through hikes in September, December, and next March. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks like the market’s cheap bet, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples leave little room for disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil…