U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Four Mondays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the…

Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 68.07, down from recent peaks as sentiment has cooled over the past two weeks. No alarm bells yet, but with September…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is…

Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is only modestly overweight at the 62nd percentile, well short of crowded, so there’s still room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite hasn’t faded. The Russell 2000 trades at 25 times forward earnings, above the Nasdaq 100 at 23 times and the S&P 500 at 20 times. Yes,…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment​ With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 102.7, active managers are all-in on U.S. equities. Bullish positioning alone isn’t a sell signal, but it does leave the market vulnerable to…

Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has cooled from its highs but remains firmly overweight, now sitting in the 75th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Going back to 1950, the S&P 500’s first half of September ranks as the sixth-weakest half-month in the annual cycle, a seasonally weak period for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

Sector Fund Flows Over the past 12 months, investors have piled into tech funds on the back of AI fever, chip strength and improving earnings outlooks. Can the momentum hold? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation