U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last week on Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending…

S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 Since 1928, the S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished the year up in 73% of calendar years. Risk is always there, but staying structurally bearish…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns October has a strong track record in midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain since 1950 and finishing higher nearly 74% of the time. With investors already…

Contribution to Consensus S&P 500 EPS Growth Strong 2026 earnings growth has helped bring down the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple. Consensus expects growth to cool in 2027 and 2028, but slower earnings growth alone…

GS Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions excluding equities have tightened, but the broader picture is still easy, more growth-friendly than restrictive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown Drawdown risk for the S&P 500 has increased recently, amid rising yields, looming rate hikes, and weak market breadth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has compressed from 23 to 19, not because prices fell but because earnings estimates rose. Valuations have cooled from their…

Valuation – Hyperscaler Forward P/E Valuations for the hyperscalers have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit at their lowest level in 10 years. They’re still not a bargain, but the risk‑reward looks…

Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E So far this year, rising real yields have forced the S&P 500’s multiple lower, a classic setup where higher discount rates squeeze P/Es without necessarily triggering…

U.S. Composite PMI U.S. business activity surged in September to its fastest pace since July 2021. But, the expansion also intensified inflation risks. Image: Bloomberg

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Early October has been quietly kind to the S&P 500: since 1950, the first half of the month ranks third among all half-months for gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…