U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish, well before the opening bell. The S&P 500 followed through, ending the day down…

What Bonds Did While Stocks Fell The 10-year Treasury posted gains in 10 of the 12 stock market declines of at least 15% since 1929. Recessions and financial panics drive investors toward safety and often…

S&P 500 Performance Based on Congress After Midterms History favors the bulls. In every instance since 1950 when Democrats held both chambers of Congress following a midterm election, the S&P 500 was higher three, six,…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Communication Services still look cheap, while Healthcare and Consumer Staples have less margin for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates U.S. small caps are set to accelerate: earnings growth is forecast to climb from 36% in 2026 to 45% in 2027. For the S&P 500, earnings growth is expected to slow…

Trading Activity The STAX climbed to a four-year high in October as Schwab retail clients bought the tech dip, with semiconductor stocks especially popular. Image: The Daily Chartbook

Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Caution still rules among discretionary investors, even as S&P 500 earnings grow strongly. Rising earnings estimates and contained macro risks could be enough to draw sidelined cash back into stocks.…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed raised its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.94% from 2.90%, pointing to an expansion that’s still holding its pace. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New…

Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation With equity exposure at the 25th percentile, vol-control funds have room to add risk if volatility cools. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Ratio to 1-Year Moving Average vs. S&P 500 EPS The S&P 500’s ratio to its one-year moving average points to zero earnings growth priced into the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Forecasts for S&P 500 Earnings and Returns Goldman Sachs expects earnings growth, not multiple expansion, to lift the S&P 500 18% higher to 8,700 over the next 12 months. Bottom-up analyst forecasts are more bullish,…