U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At last Thursday’s close, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish, and the S&P 500 confirmed it Friday, closing up 0.42%. Using multiple…

S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns History shows the S&P 500 usually takes a 5%–10% hit sometime during the year. After March’s double-digit drop, the next leg down could be shallower. Back-to-back big hits are…

Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years could bring slimmer returns. These are outstanding businesses, but valuation still matters. Even the best names…

Ratio of Bitcoin to Production Cost Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, well below JPMorgan’s estimated $80,000 production cost, a sharp divergence that still hasn’t shaken the bank’s long-term bullish view. Image: J.P. Morgan

MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are nudging higher MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2027, on the view that the AI and tech surge will widen margins, not reignite overinvestment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers held up in July, though it was hardly enthusiastic. Valuations, geopolitics and monetary policy are still weighing on…

Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds For two straight months, crypto funds have faced relentless outflows, with Bitcoin vehicles taking the heaviest hits. Now the flow picture is improving as buyers step back in. Image: Deutsche…

S&P 500 Real Revenue per Employee AI is already lifting productivity in some tasks. Over time, that could mean more sales per employee. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Rolling 20-Week Correlations of the S&P 500 to the Usual Havens During this decade’s market shocks, traditional havens have too often failed to hedge, frustrating investors who assumed they would shield portfolios. The takeaway: diversification…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The Energy sector still looks cheap versus other sectors, while Industrials already seem to have priced in plenty of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Broad Money (M2) After shrinking in 2022 and 2023, U.S. M2 growth has continued to expand. That’s good news for nominal spending and asset prices, but it also brings the familiar inflation question back…