U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Three Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the…

18 AI Buildout Names = 33.6% of the S&P 500 If the AI complex falls 20% while everything else holds steady, the S&P 500 would drop 6.7%. The other 485 stocks would need to rise…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment​ With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 76.84, active managers appear cautious but far from bearish, keeping substantial exposure to U.S. stocks. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks…

Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, signaling fear, not panic. Better news could send U.S. stocks higher. Image: Cable News Network

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 November has typically been a bright spot for U.S. stocks, with an average gain of 1.6%. Seasonal flows, holiday-spending optimism and year-end positioning could help extend…

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.62%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S.…

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of a meaningful U.S. slowdown. It projects growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, as a resilient labor market…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Early November is generally a very favorable period for the S&P 500. Since 1950, the first half of November ranks seventh for gains among all half-month periods. Image: Goldman Sachs…

S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures places the S&P 500 above neutral, but nowhere near overbought. A push higher is still on the table if momentum returns. So far, though, the…

Monthly Prediction Trading Volumes Retail trading activity has cooled year over year, but prediction markets are heating up. Their monthly volume hit $78 billion in September. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives suggests U.S. real GDP growth of 1.9%,…