U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Three Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the…

S&P 500 – Real Growth of $1 in U.S. Stocks Since 1871, U.S. stocks have spent about three out of every four months below a previous peak. The trend line goes up, but the typical…

S&P 500 Abnormal Returns The market keeps rewarding the stubborn. For more than 25 years, U.S. equities have brushed off one wave of bad news after another. Bull markets don’t wait for the headlines to…

Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total A handful of giants now run the S&P 500. The biggest 10 stocks account for 39% of the index’s…

Cumulative Sector ETF Flows Tech demand is showing the first faint signs of a pause. It’s far too early to call a change in trend, but investors are cautiously starting to rotate into cyclicals and…

Estimated Exposure to AI Automation Investors have begun punishing U.S. sectors perceived as most exposed to AI-driven automation, even when those companies still show steady fundamentals, while rewarding the companies supplying the tools behind the…

S&P 500 Earnings Growth This was no ordinary quarter. Even after stripping out the “other income” boost from mark-to-market gains on private equity and venture stakes, S&P 500 earnings still jumped 31% year over year.…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed lowered its Q3 2026 GDP nowcast to 2.14% from 2.24%, a small step down that leaves the U.S. expansion broadly on track. Image: Federal Reserve Bank…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy remains the cheap sector, while Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Staples are already baking in a lot of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Net Interest Expense as a % of Total Tax Revenue Washington is increasingly using tax revenue to cover its interest bill. Roughly 20% of federal receipts now goes toward debt service, the highest share…

Equities and Mutual Funds as a % of Disposable Personal Income Stocks now dominate household wealth. As a result, the equity wealth effect is a much bigger force in the U.S. business cycle and a…