U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing down just…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 76.78, the S&P 500 remains in overbought territory. Some weakness isn’t unusual as quarter-end rebalancing winds down. Image: Real Investment Advice

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 July has been a friendly month for U.S. stocks, with average returns of 0.8% going back to 1964. If that seasonal pattern holds, bulls could have…

Gold Model Using a model that incorporates real yields, the dollar, the S&P 500, and copper, gold now appears to be trading near fair value again. That leaves investors with a neutral signal. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Margin Debt Margin debt is rising fast. Leverage can turbocharge gains in a rally, but it cuts just as hard when sentiment shifts. Investors would be wise to pay attention. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth The median S&P 500 stock is expected to report 9% EPS growth in Q2 2026, a far cry from the 22% EPS growth forecast for the aggregate index. Image: Goldman…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 46th percentile, while discretionary investor positioning continues to lag at the 29th percentile, keeping the door open for more exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have slipped from the top of their long-term trend channel…

U.S. Breakeven Inflation Rate U.S. breakeven inflation rates are not just easing. They have been falling sharply, pointing to markets pricing in weaker inflation ahead, a welcome sign for stability and growth. Image: Goldman Sachs…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The first half of July has long been a sweet spot for the S&P 500, ranking as the strongest half-month of the year since 1950, even though seasonality is never…

Equity Positioning At the 36th percentile, overall equity positioning points to a modest underweight, while large-cap Tech is near neutral at the 45th percentile, leaving room to increase exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation