U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 On Tuesday last week, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing…

Oil Prices vs. U.S. Inflation Higher oil prices often drive up U.S. inflation by raising energy and transportation costs, which ripple through the economy. This can temporarily pressure stock prices via squeezed corporate profits and…

Weight of Top 10 Holdings in Each Country’s ETF The dominance of the top 10 U.S. stocks has raised alarms about market concentration, but a look across other major economies shows the U.S. isn’t as…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Growth remains solid and earnings keep beating expectations. Trouble is, valuations are stretched, and any dip in confidence could hit hard. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums low in the U.S. and Japan, investors earn little extra for taking on stock risk over safer bonds, leaving equities a tougher call and prone…

Peak to Trough in the S&P 500 Around Spikes in the Geopolitical Risk Index Most geopolitical shocks haven’t caused lasting market impacts. Oil tends to surge when tensions rise in the Middle East, gold gets…

U.S. vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward Earnings Per Share U.S. corporate earnings have led the pack in recent years, but overseas profits are finally closing the gap. That momentum shift could mark an…

Bond Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. rate volatility has jumped alongside the latest Middle East tensions, lifting the MOVE index to its 200-day average and weighing on equities. The jump in the index says a…

Valuations – S&P 500 P/E vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) When manufacturing costs climb, equities usually feel it later. Higher input prices work their way into the S&P 500’s P/E ratio with…

Distributions od Returns of World Tech vs. World ex. TMT The tech sector is undergoing a valuation reset this year, following years of outsized gains driven by AI hype and momentum investing. Over the last…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Relative performance between cyclical and defensive stocks points to roughly 1.5% real GDP growth in the U.S., well under Goldman Sachs’ 2.7%…