U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell — and the S&P 500 barely budged, closing down…

Stock Buybacks vs. S&P 500 With buybacks running at $6–7 billion a day, U.S. corporates remain a powerful bid through year-end—steady demand that keeps stocks buoyant and dips shallow. Image: Real Investment Advice

AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bulls minus bears sentiment spread in 2025 has mirrored bear market extremes from history, reflecting deep pessimism over near‑term stock performance — but to contrarians,…

Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS Risk Appetite Indicator shows investors taking risk with conviction, betting on steady returns and a resilient economy—but fading momentum suggests the easy gains may be behind…

Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 85th percentile, positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks shows investors are still crowding into their favorite trade—chasing the same growth and innovation themes that have driven the…

S&P 500 3-Month Realized Average Stock Correlation With realized correlations across the S&P 500 sinking, the market looks less like a monolith and more like a stock picker’s playground, where sector themes and company fundamentals…

Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio The market is no bargain: the S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, versus 16 on average over two decades, while the Magnificent Seven stretch valuations…

Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further…

Global Median 10-Year Yield Across All Sample Economies The median 10-year government bond yield has risen from the rock-bottom levels of the pre-Covid years and early pandemic, returning to its long-term historical average — a…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession Markets are pricing roughly 16% odds of a U.S. recession over the next year—slightly above average, but far…

World Technology vs. World Ex. TMT Relentless innovation and society’s digital obsession have kept tech earnings racing ahead of global peers—and there’s little sign the momentum is fading. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research