U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Tuesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 19.36, the S&P 500 looks stretched on the downside, and a reflexive rally could follow if market participants regain confidence. Sentiment feels pretty washed out, so a rebound…

S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close…

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 April tends to smile on U.S. equities. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% rise for the month. But this year’s Middle East conflict…

Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are still in buying mode, keeping the Insider Transactions Ratio in bullish territory and adding a dose of optimism to U.S. stocks. Investors often read renewed insider buying as a…

Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and cyclicals even more so as growth concerns keep investors cautious. Any sign of good news, though, could send positioning swinging the other…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October, the S&P 500’s P/E has slipped from 23 to 19, showing investors have turned more cautious even as earnings hold steady. The mood has cooled, and…

Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite is neutral, supported by steady global equity inflows. Investors have grown more cautious over the past month. This looks like prudence, not panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Valuation Spread The last time the Nasdaq 100 traded this cheap versus the S&P 500, it staged its biggest outperformance in a year. Honestly, that’s tough to ignore. Image: Bloomberg

Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption…

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Markets are pricing in just a 12% risk of a U.S. recession within a year, but Goldman Sachs remains more cautious, putting the likelihood at 30%.…