U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day…

S&P 500’s Average Annualized Return over the Next 10 Years, by Starting CAPE High starting valuations have often meant leaner returns. When the CAPE ratio was above 30, stocks gained just 1.4% a year on…

Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 17.5% during midterm years, the deepest…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Investors have little room for error. With the equity risk premium at its lowest level in more than two decades, U.S. stocks offer less reward for the risks investors take.…

Global Sector Fund Flows Over the past year, investors have poured into tech funds as AI euphoria, surging chip stocks and rising earnings forecasts strengthened the bull case. How much longer can the momentum last?…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity fund managers are taking on more risk again after September’s decline, but they remain cautious about near-term returns, with rates, fiscal policy and…

S&P 500 Company Guidance vs. Consensus Growth Expectations The S&P 500 is on track for another quarter of solid earnings growth, led by tech. This quarter, growth is expected to spread to other sectors, too.…

Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The equal-weight index trades at 15 times forward earnings, compared with 19 for the benchmark. It’s not cheap, but the valuation gap offers investors a more attractive entry point.…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns October has been kind to the S&P 500 so far. After a strong first half, stocks may have more room to climb: historically, the second half of October tends to…

Small Cap Equity Positioning Small caps are still underowned. Positioning sits at just the 32nd percentile, far from crowded and leaving plenty of room for investors to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Oil Prices Forecasts Oil prices eased in Q3 but remain high. For S&P 500 companies, the earnings hit is usually modest, as they pass on higher costs and cut spending. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation