U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up…

S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns Most years, the S&P 500 gives up 5% to 10%. With March’s double-digit drop already in the books, the next move lower may be more modest. Back-to-back big drawdowns…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a bullish but choppy 2026. U.S. stocks are now heading into their weakest seasonal stretch, which typically runs from mid-August…

New S&P 500 Index All-Time Highs Per Year The S&P 500 has reached 25 record highs this year. In robust bull markets, new highs usually come in clusters and last longer than the crowd expects,…

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales rose in June to 483K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…

Large Cap MCG & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Revisions Large-cap tech companies have seen upward earnings revisions, but positioning remains only modestly overweight at the 54th percentile. That gap to fundamentals leaves some air for…

CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar The latest pullback has barely dented CTA appetite for the U.S. dollar, with positioning sitting at the 93rd percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Cumulative Daily Equity ETF Flows Equity ETF flows show no sign of slowing: 2026 is smashing every historical comparison, and July’s volatility barely dented risk appetite. Investors remain firmly all-in on equities. Image: Strategas Asset…

Central Bank Gold Demand in Real USD Central banks are still the backbone of gold’s bull market. Deutsche Bank remains bullish, calling the metal’s “explosive phase” intact, with targets of $4,700 an ounce by year-end,…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still screens cheap versus other sectors, while Industrials and Consumer Staples already look priced for plenty of good news. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady expansion, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2% U.S. real GDP…