U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the…

Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations When earnings drift too far from their long-term growth trend, markets tend to close the gap painfully. The gap widening today points to risks still…

Real Price of Gold Per Ounce Gold’s nominal price has climbed past its 1980 peak, but once you factor in inflation, it’s far less frothy than it looks. The market hasn’t lost its head, at…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite is flagging 2026 as a bullish but choppy year, and for now, the market is playing along with that seasonal script. Image:…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in December. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 17.1%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

S&P 500 and Equity ETF Flows Equity ETFs remain money magnets, pulling in about $5.6 billion a day since the start of the year, up from $3.5 billion in 2025. Flows don’t lie: risk appetite is alive…

Equity Sector Flows Investors are rotating out of high-growth tech stocks, where outflows have accelerated on overvaluation fears, and back into defensive and “old economy” sectors. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Risk appetite is holding firm, with many S&P 500 sectors still trading at valuations far above their historical averages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility When markets are calm, systematic strategies often stay heavily long equities to capture steady gains, a stance that can sting once volatility returns. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Analysts are turning more cautious on U.S. earnings as growth concerns deepen, raising the risk of near-term pressure on stock valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research