U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At the close two Thursdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish, and the S&P 500 followed through on Friday, closing up…

U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in June. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…

Valuation – U.S. Hyperscalers 12-Month Forward P/E U.S. hyperscalers are trading at decade-low valuations, tempting bargain hunters. But doubts about AI spending and when those returns will arrive are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Image:…

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street is betting on a strong earnings tailwind, with S&P 500 profits seen rising 25% in 2026 and 16% in 2027. Small caps could do even better, with growth of…

Contribution to S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings are riding a strong tailwind from booming energy profits and tight AI chip supply, with semiconductor stocks responsible for nearly half of Q2 2026 growth. Image:…

Inflation – WTI Crude Oil Inflation eased in June largely because oil and gasoline prices fell, but the recent rebound in oil prices means inflation pressures could re‑intensify over the coming months. Image: MarketDesk Research

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed lifted its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.6% from 2.36%, reinforcing the underlying growth narrative. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image…

Financials Group Positioning Financials have improved in positioning, but they still sit in the 23rd percentile, leaving room for more risk-taking. Fundamentals are steady, so the caution may still be a bit overdone. Image: Deutsche…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 12%, market-implied odds of a U.S. recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, leaving…

Materials Group Positioning Positioning in materials has collapsed to extreme lows, leaving investors sharply underweight. A small shift in sentiment could fuel a powerful rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation