U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 75.55, the S&P 500 remains technically overbought. Momentum is still bullish and key supports are intact, but the rally is unlikely to be a smooth ride. Image: Real…

S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has lasted eight years and generated a 288% gain. Nearly four years into the current rally, the market still appears to…

CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning remains elevated across most major indexes. The S&P 500 sits at the 90th percentile, while the Nasdaq-100 is now at the 73rd percentile. The Russell 2000 is very stretched…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are aggressively bullish, with positioning at the 92nd percentile. Discretionary investors remain far more cautious, modestly underweight at the 27th percentile, leaving significant room to add risk. Image:…

Valuation – S&P 500 Forwad P/E Ratio vs. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Leading Indicator) The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index came in hotter than expected, raising a warning flag for equity valuations. Historically, rising manufacturing…

AAII Asset Allocation Despite persistently bearish sentiment, U.S. retail investors grew more optimistic in September, raising their stock allocation to its highest level since December 2017. The move was a vote of confidence in equities.…

Hyperscaler Quarterly Y/Y Capex Growth Hyperscaler capex is expected to surge 116% year/year in Q3 2026, giving S&P 500 earnings a powerful boost. But the spending boom is likely to cool over the next few…

S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Corporate America is delivering solid profits, with margins expected to reach 15% in the third quarter of 2026. For investors hoping the rally has further…

Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 98th percentile, leaving them nearly max long with little firepower left to fuel another wave of buying. That makes them vulnerable if…

MOVE Index and Largecap Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning Over the past few years, discretionary positioning has generally moved inversely to rates volatility, with the relationship strengthening or weakening as conditions change. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…