U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day…

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 – First Half of July Seasonality favors the bulls. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced 69% of the time in the first half of July, with the Nasdaq 100…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now…

Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is set to reach $764 billion this year, rising to $1.018 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it feels less like a cycle and more like a structural reset. Image:…

Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index fell 2% in May. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…

S&P 500 During The Dotcom Bubble Back at the start of the dotcom bust, U.S. tech stocks sold off while the rest of the market rose. If that pattern holds, the safest place to hide…

S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator As G10 excess liquidity remains in negative territory, the outlook for U.S. equities over the next six months darkens. When liquidity drains, stocks tend to feel it.…

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts have modestly tempered their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, but expectations are still elevated as confidence in the full-year outlook…

Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials continues to lag, at just the 8th percentile, leaving significant room to add risk. With fundamentals holding firm, that cautious stance looks hard to justify. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 11%, market-implied odds of a US recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, pointing…

Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research