U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.25%. Using…
Share Repurchases vs. U.S. Stock Market Returns Corporate buybacks and market returns move in tandem. With roughly $5 billion a day in share repurchases, U.S. companies are keeping a solid bid under equities and softening…
S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s…
S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The S&P 500 sits near record highs, but with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 24, doubt still runs deep, meaning this rally may have more fuel…
Bitcoin Drawdown Bitcoin was down more than 30% from its October peak. For most assets that would be a crash, but for Bitcoin it’s a familiar kind of turbulence, sharp yet within its usual volatility…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q4 2025 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.33% from 2.31% a week earlier, keeping the narrative of steady, moderate expansion intact. Image: Federal Reserve…
U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge
Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late…
Share of Global Market Capitalization With 64% of global equities, the United States still sets the tempo in world finance, drawing capital and dictating market moods from New York to Tokyo. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Risk Appetite Indicator The Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator has dropped back to zero, marking a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research