U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.80%.…
S&P 500 12-Month Forward Returns After 10-Day Surges Of 10%+ History leans bullish: since 1950, a 10% surge in the S&P 500 over 10 days, like in April, has been followed by gains in 17…
S&P 500 – Investing at All-Time Highs vs. All Other Days Investing at all-time highs tends to spook investors, but the data suggests otherwise: S&P 500 forward returns have typically looked much like those from…
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Wall Street’s latest tailwind: U.S. share buyback authorizations have hit a record $422 billion year-to-date, providing a meaningful cushion for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.3% in March. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the…
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Wall Street’s 2026 playbook starts solid and gets stronger, with S&P 500 earnings seen up 12% year over year in Q1 and then picking up pace to roughly 20% growth…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.75% from 2.60% a week earlier, adding to the steady growth narrative. Not a huge jump, but…
S&P 500 and Prediction Market Odds of the End to the Iran Conflict U.S. stocks advanced as the geopolitical mood brightened. The S&P 500 has followed every twist in expectations around the Iran conflict. Right…
U.S. 10 Year Yield and S&P 500 For equities, focus less on where rates are and more on how fast they’re moving. U.S. stocks have rarely shown a strong link to the absolute level of…
S&P 500 and Three Weeks of +3% Gains in a Row The S&P 500 notched a third straight week of gains above 3%. Moves like this usually show up in snapback rallies after panic selling,…
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 0.66% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.