U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing down just…

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 75.84, the S&P 500 is technically overbought. Momentum favors the bulls and key supports are intact, but expect a choppy ride rather than a straight line higher. Image:…

S&P 500 Performance When Up YTD Between 10-20% at the End of September When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD by late September, Q4 tends to be bullish, with an 86% success…

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street’s earnings bet: S&P 500 profits up 33% in 2026, 15% in 2027. Small caps could steal the show with 31% growth this year and 50% next year. Image: Goldman…

S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 and 2027 Goldman Sachs is still calling for the S&P 500 to hit 8,000 in three months, 8,300 in six, and 8,700 within a year, arguing that earnings growth,…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.3%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…

Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 P/E Prices have lagged the earnings boom, pulling near-term valuations below their trend-earnings multiples. The US market, for now, shows no…

Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are still firmly bullish, with positioning in the 89th percentile. Discretionary investors are more cautious, modestly underweight at the 28th percentile, leaving plenty of room to add risk.…

Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has climbed and is approaching stretched territory as investors pile into higher‑risk trades. Riding the upside can pay off, until the crowd is…

Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 trades not far from record highs, but breadth is deteriorating. Too much of the S&P 500’s gain is coming…

Sector Fund Flows Over the past year, money has piled into tech funds as AI hype, chip outperformance and rising profit forecasts reinforced the bull case. Is the trend running out of steam? Image: Deutsche…