U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day…
S&P 500 Valuation – The Shiller CAPE Since 1881 The S&P 500’s CAPE ratio has climbed to levels seen only in the market’s priciest episodes, when the next decade typically delivered negative real returns. History…
S&P 500 – 10 Best September Returns Ever September is historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, but midterm election years have delivered some of the strongest Septembers on record. All four of the best…
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity is still in negative territory, and that’s bad news for U.S. stocks over the next three to six months. As the liquidity backdrop fades,…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing cooled slightly in August. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.6, below expectations of 55.6 and marking an eighth straight month of expansion. Growth is still…
Leveraged Fund Positions in NASDAQ-100 Futures Bears are piling into Nasdaq‑100 futures. Short positions have surged 35% since mid‑June and are now near record levels, setting up a sharp squeeze if momentum turns. Image: Goldman…
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs’ overall bond allocation has slid to the 5th percentile, signaling almost zero appetite for rates risk. Fixed income is firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Cumulative flows into cryptocurrency funds have flipped positive for the first time since May 2026, driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Institutions are stepping back in, and risk…
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been trading inversely to rate volatility. Warsh’s conventionally hawkish tone lowers the odds of catch-up tightening, which should help anchor rates vol and give stocks a…
Total Return Performance (USD Terms) of Selected Assets in August Precious metals stole the show in August, with silver and gold each climbing double digits as money rotated into havens amid U.0.S debt worries, dollar…
10-Year Government Bond Yield Sovereign bonds are selling off worldwide, not just in one market, as investors are concerned about higher energy prices, stickier inflation, tighter policy and a wave of government borrowing. Image: Alpine…