U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through,…

S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings are now at the top of a two-standard-deviation channel that has contained them for 90 years. This isn’t a market-top call, but it is…

Best Six Months of the Year Starting in Midterm Years for S&P 500 Bulls have reason to smile. November through April has been the S&P 500’s strongest six-month stretch. In midterm years, the run has…

Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 is increasingly top-heavy: its 10 largest stocks make up 39% of the index and 37% of…

S&P 500 – 12 Months After Each Midterm Election U.S. stocks have historically posted double-digit gains in the 12 months after midterm elections. But with the market so concentrated, another positive post-midterm year, the 22nd…

Cumulative S&P 500 EPS Growth Surprise During the Earnings Season S&P 500 earnings are still beating estimates in Q3 2026, but the size of upside surprises has cooled after a stronger first half. Image: Goldman…

CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs remain wary of rates risk, with bond exposure at the 10th percentile. Treasuries have rallied sharply, but they have covered only a fraction of their shorts. More short covering could…

Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary investors remain cautious despite strong earnings growth. But with estimates still moving higher and macro risks contained, cash may soon find its way into stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Median Quarterly S&P 500 Return Based on Real Economic Growth Environment Slower economic growth hasn’t stopped stocks from climbing. When earnings rise, the S&P 500 has often pushed higher, though at a more measured pace.…

Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap positioning is still very light, sitting in the 22nd percentile. If sentiment shifts, there’s room for a meaningful pickup in risk-taking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Change in Foreign Holdings of U.S. Equities Foreign investors now hold roughly $10 in U.S. equities for every $1 they have bought. The buying that built the position was modest. The position itself is not.…