U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up…

Markets – Cumulative S&P 500 Growth vs. Cumulative Real GDP Growth vs. Cumulative S&P Sales Growth Years of Fed stimulus have taught investors to buy every dip, pushing U.S. markets skyward and away from the…

S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 The recent choppy trade fits the script of the four-year presidential cycle’s midterm-year rhythm. From March to April, the S&P 500 often rallies toward its yearly peak before sentiment…

Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The S&P 500 is trading close to record highs, and with sentiment at 32 on the Fear & Greed Index, the rally could find another leg if momentum…

Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning At the 43rd percentile, positioning reflects a market that has eased slightly below neutral on mega-cap growth and tech, well away from both extreme optimism or panic. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Global Value vs. Growth This year, investors have shifted from expensive tech into value plays. But lower rates could revive growth stocks as cheaper money boosts the appeal of future profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still playing it safe, with the AAII bull-bear spread stuck below zero. With so much uncertainty still in the air, that’s no surprise. Sentiment usually lags until there’s…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History With earnings sentiment holding firm, investors are keeping S&P 500 sector valuations stretched above long-term averages. For now, as profit momentum holds, the market seems happy to…

S&P 500 Valuations Cracks are starting to show. The composite S&P 500 valuation indicator, which integrates PE ratios, equity risk premia, and price-based mean reversion factors, is starting to roll over from stretched levels. Image:…

Global Equity Forward Earnings Global earnings growth exceeding 15% is rare outside of post-recession recoveries or major economic booms. Right now, the backdrop for businesses is unusually strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 79.29, the latest reading shows that active managers remain bullish on U.S. equities, despite the market’s recent volatility. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week…