U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day…

U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The U.S. 10-year real yield is well above its 1.6% average since 1990. Rising earnings may keep stocks from falling, but higher real yields are limiting multiple expansion and leave valuations…

Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 has become top-heavy. Its 10 largest stocks now account for 40% of the index and 37%…

MSCI AC World EPS Earnings are holding up, and analysts still see room to lift estimates. The Street is betting AI can boost margins without sending capex soaring. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold and Copper Prices Goldman Sachs is sticking to its $5,400 gold forecast for the end of 2027. Rising demand and tight supply are keeping the upside case alive for gold and copper. Image: Goldman…

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the…

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks remain expensive. But with earnings still climbing and companies beating expectations, that premium looks less like a red flag and more like the…

Real World Tokenized Assets Tokenized real-world assets are finally gaining traction, but their share of the more than $100 trillion U.S. investable asset universe remains negligible. Adoption is only just getting started. Image: Deutsche Bank

Cross-Asset Correlation Matrix The S&P 500’s one-year correlations are 0.29 with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, 0.44 with gold, and -0.35 with WTI crude oil, a mix that offers useful guidance for asset allocation. Image:…

U.S. Economic Forecasts Two Fed rate hikes are in Deutsche Bank’s forecast. The bank sees the U.S. economy holding up through 2028 and expects a 25 bps hike in December 2026 and another in March…

S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy remains cheap, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples have little room for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research