U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, well before the opening bell. The S&P 500 followed through,…

10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Return, Annualized, by Inflation Level and Direction When inflation was 4% and falling, U.S. Treasury bonds delivered nearly 8% a year in real returns. The picture changes when inflation is high…

S&P 500 Performance on Friday the 13th since 1928 That’s a fun twist on the superstition. But Friday the 13th in November has often been a rough ride for U.S. stocks. Will this year be…

Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index sits at 41, leaving sentiment near neutral. With neither panic nor euphoria in the air, positive news could push U.S. stocks higher. Image:…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment​ Active managers have cut their exposure to U.S. equities, pushing the NAAIM Exposure Index down to 72.90, its lowest level in nearly two months. The mood is cautious, not…

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio, U.S. Household Allocations to Equities and Cash Rates The Shiller CAPE puts U.S. stocks back in the stratosphere. Investors may enjoy the ride up, but historically, rich valuations can mean lower…

U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Over the past year, with geopolitical tensions mounting and interest rates still high, U.S. investors have favored bonds and money-market funds over riskier stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Large Cap Utilities Positioning The rally since late September has barely changed the mood: positioning in utilities now sits at the 1st percentile, leaving plenty of room for investors to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank…

MSCI AC World EPS 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates remain steady, with analysts still seeing room for upgrades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little evidence of a meaningful U.S. slowdown. It forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, close to consensus. A resilient labor market is helping…

Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns A sluggish start doesn’t always define November. The S&P 500 has often gained ground in the month’s second half, which ranks as the sixth-strongest half-month stretch of the year. Image:…