U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, well before the opening bell. The S&P 500 followed through, ending…

Average S&P 500 Return 12 Months After the Midterm Election, by Results In the year after midterm elections, stocks gained an average of 15.5% when a Republican held the White House and Democrats controlled Congress.…

Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite for U.S. equities has picked up in November as fund managers reassess the post-midterm political landscape. But they’re not reaching for risk: defensive…

MSCI ACWI Aggregate Earnings Growth Corporate profits are still surging. As earnings season winds down, global earnings growth looks set to hold at 33% in Q3. The rally is broadening beyond tech, energy and materials,…

S&P 500 Implied Correlation Correlation across S&P 500 stocks bounced from an unusually low level but remained subdued, as investors focused more closely on fundamentals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 3.03% YoY in October. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs are still cautious on rates. Bond exposure sits in the 11th percentile, and they have covered only a fraction of their shorts. More covering may be ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank…

Estimated Wealth Effects on Annualized Real PCE Growth Should AI-related stocks stumble, the wealth effect supporting consumption could become a headwind in 2027. Consumer sentiment, after all, is closely linked to market performance. Image: Goldman…

Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth The tailwind from financial conditions has faded, and is expected to become a headwind for U.S. growth in 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap positioning remains very light, sitting in the 18th percentile. A turn in sentiment could bring investors back into the trade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Across Currencies Hyperscalers have issued $296 billion of debt worldwide so far this year, with another $440 billion expected in 2027. The pace may vary from borrower to borrower, depending on market…