U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.25%.…
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings…
S&P 500 Around Over 30 Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 After past geopolitical shocks, the S&P 500 has historically bottomed in about 15 trading days. Will history rhyme once again? If so, signs of stability…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 17 on the Fear & Greed Index, extreme fear still dominates. Some market participants are already panicking, while contrarians are starting to smell opportunity. Extreme fear often…
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for…
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings has cooled slightly in recent weeks but remains positive overall amid ongoing optimistic outlooks for the full…
AAII Sentiment Survey Bearish sentiment among AAII investors has climbed above 50% for the first time in more than six months, a contrarian signal that often bodes well for U.S. stocks over the next two…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Earnings optimism hasn’t cracked, and investors are keeping most S&P 500 sectors richly priced. As long as profits keep rolling in, few seem ready to question the…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM index, now at 60.24, shows active managers stepping away from U.S. equities as caution spreads across the market. Choppy sessions in recent weeks have kept sentiment on…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures still shows the S&P 500 deep in oversold territory, setting the stage for a reflexive rebound if sentiment turns. Such setups can flip fast once…
Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has…