U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.62%. Using…
S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change vs. Annual Change in GAAP Earnings The S&P 500 tends to move in step with corporate earnings, so strategies built around steady profit growth make sense for investors looking…
S&P 500 Performance After 6-Day Win Streaks and Up 6% Six days up in a row and a 6% surge: history says that combo often bodes well for U.S. stocks, with median 12-month gains of…
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns History shows that when consumer confidence sinks, stocks often rebound, turning gloom into a launchpad for gains. It’s the familiar rhythm of fear giving way to…
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank is turning more bullish on corporate America. Backed by a supportive macro backdrop, it sees S&P 500 earnings growth coming in strong at 19.2% for Q1, comfortably ahead…
Valuations – Software vs. World ex. TMT and Technology vs. World TMT Valuations in global tech and software have narrowed sharply, with forward P/Es at their lowest level relative to world equities in more than…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors grew a bit more optimistic over the past week, but bears kept control for the eighth straight week. The mood is warming but far from a turnaround. Still, it’s…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM index hovering at 69.38, active managers are sticking to their bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Bullish momentum seems alive for now. The National Association of Active Investment…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures suggests the S&P 500 is running hot, raising the odds of a short-term pullback after a stretch where good news has largely been priced in.…
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…
U.S. Tech – 3-Month Change in Price vs. 3-Month Change in FY2 EPS Until recently, U.S. tech earnings and stock returns have run hand in hand. With the correlation breaking down, dips are looking more…