U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing down just…

Net Credit Balance (Investor Cash Minus Margin Debt) Investor cash minus margin debt has fallen to negative $992 billion, the lowest on record and deeper than any prior cycle. It points to rising risk and…

Stocks – Dow Jones with Major Geopolitical Events Major geopolitical events can jolt markets, but U.S. equities have kept climbing as investors look beyond the headlines, rewarding those who stayed the course. Image: Carson Investment…

Hyperscaler Capex by Company U.S. hyperscaler capex is on track to hit $740 billion this year and nearly $1 trillion by 2027. At that scale, it no longer looks cyclical. It looks like a structural…

Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have trimmed their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, but expectations still look elevated as confidence in the full-year picture holds up. Image:…

Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -0.22% YoY in June. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary…

Valuation – 10-Year Total Return for S&P 500 over the Last Century Based on Starting CAPE Ratio Markets have a habit of pushing valuations to extremes, but history is unforgiving: elevated CAPEs tend to disappoint…

S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors have to live through a 14% drawdown each year, but the S&P 500 has still ended higher in 35 of the past 46 years.…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.37% from 2.42% last week, keeping the growth picture broadly intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York…

Materials Group Positioning Materials positioning has dropped to the 1st percentile, leaving investors heavily underweight. It would not take much to trigger a sharp rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Recession – Length of Every U.S. Business Cycle What a run. The U.S. expansion is now the sixth-longest on record. If 2026 passes without a recession, it climbs into the top five. Image: Deutsche Bank