U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, 4 weeks ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium The equity risk premium has turned negative, putting U.S. stocks in a tricky situation: higher risk for lower expected returns. That’s a tough pitch, especially if earnings or sentiment falter.…

Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have generally performed better under Republican-led Congresses than under Democratic-led ones. The best annual returns came when Congress was split,…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite points to a constructive year-end. After the early-year correction, much of the usual midterm-year weakness may already be behind the market. Image:…

S&P 500 – Short Interest in SPY U.S. Equity ETF Short interest in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains near historic lows, suggesting investors are positioned for gains, not a sharp reversal. That leaves little short-covering…

S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) S&P 500 ROE is rising, but investors are beginning to question whether today’s exceptional returns are sustainable. For now, earnings expectations remain supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Gross Buyback Growth Despite surging AI investment and increased equity issuance, corporate buybacks have picked up speed. S&P 500 gross buybacks jumped 15% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs…

MSCI AC World EPS Earnings are holding up, and analysts still have room to raise their forecasts. The bet is that AI can widen margins without triggering a capex surge. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed lifted its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast to 2.83% from 2.55%, reinforcing the view that the expansion remains resilient. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick…

Average S&P 500 Stock Earnings Day Move Options markets are pricing in an average move of 5.4% for S&P 500 stocks after earnings reports this quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Large Cap Sector Positioning MCG & Tech positioning has started to cool, but the trade remains crowded compared with the rest of the market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation