U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing up just…

S&P 500 Index vs. 40-Week Moving Average The 40-week moving average offers a straightforward way to manage S&P 500 exposure. Add risk when the index trades above it. Trim risk when it falls below. Process…

S&P 500 Performance After Nine Week Wins Streaks A 9-week win streak tends to have legs. In 9 out of 10 cases, the S&P 500 has moved higher in the next month, suggesting June could…

Two-Month Change in the S&P 500 Since WWII Since WWII, two-month rallies of this magnitude in the S&P 500 have been rare, typically appearing either in the rebound from recessions such as the GFC and…

Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The Middle East conflict is barely denting sentiment on Wall Street, where optimism remains intact. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 24% in 2026 and 16% in 2027, with small…

MOVE Index vs. U.S. 10-Year Note Unlike in 2022, U.S. 10-year yields are higher year to date, but rate volatility has stayed contained. Implied and realized volatility remain compressed even as inflation risks and Fed…

Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 17 times forward earnings, versus 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is hardly cheap, but it still looks better on a relative basis. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

Median Single Stock Short Interest Within S&P 500 Index Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is elevated, raising the odds of short squeezes. The rise reflects hedging activity rather than a wave of…

Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials remains very light, sitting in the 9th percentile, with plenty of room to add exposure. The underlying fundamentals make it hard to justify this level of caution. Image: Deutsche…

U.S. Equity Issuance U.S. equity issuance has been strengthening since 2023, and may accelerate further in coming months if the anticipated wave of mega-IPOs materializes. The question is whether the market has the appetite to…

Probability of U.S. Recession The one-year U.S. recession probability implied by the S&P 500 and BBB spread has eased, pointing to a more constructive market tone as fears of near-term economic stress fade. Image: J.P.…