S&P 500 – 2022 Correction vs. 2025 Correction The U.S. stock market did bounce as the technical composite dipped below 20, and the rally that began this past week could extend further, particularly if positive…
S&P 500 Performance When There is a 6-Day Win Streak During a Calendar Year Bulls once again have reason to smile: a six-day S&P 500 winning streak has preceded positive annual performance in 15 out…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator currently stands at -0.8, suggesting flat S&P 500 returns over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 May has historically been a weak month for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 averaging a gain of just 0.2% since 1964. Image: Topdown…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession occurring within the next 12 months stands at 23%, which…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 down 5.45% year-to-date, bulls are making a comeback with the slogan “Make The Stock Market Great Again!”-because apparently, even the market needs a little political pep…
Impact of Policy Uncertainty on S&P 500 Cash Use S&P 500 buybacks may face significant impacts from policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Consumer Confidence Trump’s approval exceeds Biden’s late-term lows, but deteriorating consumer confidence’s predictive power signals substantial downside risk as economic anxieties translate into political consequences. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS risk appetite indicator has improved significantly and is now nearing neutral, indicating that investors are no longer predominantly risk-averse, but are not actively seeking risk either.…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts an annualized contraction of -2.7% in U.S. real GDP for Q1 2025, while the alternative model that incorporates gold import and export…
S&P 500 Returns the First 100 Days of a New Term The S&P 500’s 7.8% decline during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office represents the worst start to a president’s term since Richard Nixon’s…