U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.37%.…

The IPO Fade – % Change from Day-One Peak by Cohort Buying into the SpaceX IPO is a bet on hype as much as fundamentals, and history points to a volatile debut. Early investors should…

S&P 500 Performance After Day 100 Is Up >9% YTD Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically…

Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 June is often a tricky month for U.S. stocks in midterm years, with a track record of softer returns and choppier swings. Image: Topdown Charts

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in April to 398K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Brent Oil Future Markets have treated oil and yields as a pair trade since the Middle East conflict began. Hopes of a peace deal could keep the oil-driven move in…

AAII Sentiment Survey The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, but U.S. retail investors are still leaning bearish, with the AAII bull-bear spread stuck in negative territory for a second straight week. That skepticism…

NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Active managers are all-in, with the NAAIM Exposure Index at 98.39 pointing to strong conviction in U.S. equities. For now, momentum remains with the bulls. The National Association of Active…

S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth indicators shows the S&P 500 is approaching overbought levels, increasing the odds of a near-term consolidation. Given the recent momentum, a pause wouldn’t be surprising. Image:…

Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are tilting toward a softer growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives now signals U.S. real GDP growth below 1.5%,…

Semiconductors vs. Consensus Fwd 12m EPS Semiconductor stocks have rallied faster than analysts have raised near-term earnings estimates, leaving valuations stretched relative to short-term fundamentals. The easy upside appears largely exhausted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…