U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day…
S&P 500 – September Average Monthly Return Since 1928, September has been the only month to post an average loss, falling 1.1%, or 1.5% in midterm years. Its second half also contains the calendar’s weakest…
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a relentless rally since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, the long-term trend channel signaling rising risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned Davis Research
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are headed for 57% earnings growth this year, compared with 23% for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech still running…
Median Short Interest Across U.S. Stocks Since 2022, traders have gradually piled into bearish bets on U.S. stocks, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp short squeeze if momentum turns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Seasonality of the VIX Index Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, higher yields and a U.S. midterm election are all flashing warning signs, but 2026 has so far defied the usual seasonal jump in volatility.…
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The rise in the U.S. 10-year real yield anchors valuations: it won’t drag prices lower if earnings keep surging, but it caps multiple expansion and raises the odds of P/E compression…
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q4 2026 GDP nowcast to 2.51% from 2.57%, a light touch that leaves the broader U.S. growth picture largely unchanged. Image: Federal Reserve Bank…
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index, which typically leads U.S. CPI by around three months, just surged to its highest level since 2022.…
Carson Proprietary Leading Economic Index – USA Carson’s LEI shows the U.S. economy in good shape and recession risk fading, leaving bulls with room to stay bullish. Image: Carson Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 Since October 2025, the Mag-7 has been a drag on U.S. indices, posting gains of less than 5% as June selling picked…