S&P 500 and S&P 500 Cumulative Net Up Volume Recent upside breakouts in S&P 500 cumulative net up volume, along with other bullish indicators, suggest that the S&P 500 may continue to reach new highs,…

Sentiment – Global Equity Risk-Love The Global Equity Risk-Love indicator, currently at the 68th percentile, has moved out of the euphoria territory, allowing for potential upside as we approach year-end. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics

U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or…

U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely…

S&P 500 Monthly New Highs per Month Since 1950, the S&P 500 has achieved 1,314 new all-time highs, highlighting its ability to rebound from market declines and continue its growth trajectory. Such growth periods often…

Number of Trading Days Since Last Fed Rate Cut The Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, in response to changing economic conditions, marks the second-longest wait for…

Inflation – U.S. Core PCE The GS Core Inflation Tracker currently remains below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, which is a crucial component of its monetary policy aimed at ensuring price stability and anchoring…

CTA Positioning in U.S. Rates While CTAs’ current long positions in U.S. rates reflect a bullish outlook, they also serve as a potential contrarian indicator for savvy investors looking to capitalize on market reversals. Image:…

S&P 500 vs. ISM Composite PMI The divergence between the U.S. ISM Composite PMI and the S&P 500 has become increasingly notable, reflecting contrasting signals about the health of the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley…

U.S. Real Prime Rate The 50bps rate cut helps small businesses by lowering borrowing costs. The Fed’s cut aims to stimulate economic activity and support the growth of these essential companies, which play a crucial…