What Do You Think Is Currently the Most Crowded Trade? The “Long Magnificent Seven” trade remains widely considered the most crowded trade among FMS investors. The popularity of these stocks may be attributed to their…
Stock Splits and S&P 500 – 12-Month Stock Performance Distribution A stock split can often generate renewed investor interest and potentially lead to a positive impact on the stock price. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain very net long S&P 500 futures, suggesting their positive outlook on the future performance of the U.S. stock market. Image:…
Central Banks – Global Monetary Policy Stimulus Leads Global Manufacturing PMI As global monetary policy stimulus tends to lead global manufacturing PMI by 8 months, could this signal the end of the economic slowdown? Image:…
Share of S&P 500 Stocks Underperforming the Index Despite the strong performance of the S&P 500 index in 2023, more than 70% of the individual stocks within the index underperformed, indicating that the overall gains…
Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process…
S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy…
U.S. Bank Reserves as a Percent of GDP As bank reserves relative to GDP gradually return to normal levels, they will no longer contribute to the upward momentum of equity valuation multiples. Image: Morgan Stanley…
Buybacks – Share of S&P 1500 Companies Paying a Dividend or Repurchasing Stock Over the years, the share of S&P 1500 companies engaging in share repurchases has surged. In 1995, only 3% participated, while in…
Share of S&P 1500 Companies by Returning Cash to Shareholders Strategy Most S&P 1500 companies are returning cash to shareholders through both dividends and buybacks, which can significantly boost shareholder returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) BofA predicts that the U.S. dollar has the potential to rally to $105.50/$106 in Q1 2024. A stronger U.S. dollar often poses challenges for U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Global Research