Fed Funds vs. VIX Taking into account the lag effect of Fed rate hikes on the U.S. economy, should investors expect the VIX to continue being elevated? Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Recessions The U.S. manufacturing sector is currently experiencing its second longest downturn in modern history, attributed to various factors, including elevated interest rates that have suppressed demand. Image: BofA US…

Cumulative Flows to Crytocurrency Funds In 2024, unprecedented inflows into cryptocurrency funds signal a shift in sentiment, as both retail and institutional investors increasingly embrace digital assets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

U.S. Government Spending U.S. government spending fell by 6% year-over-year, marking a notable shift. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 – Indexed Performance Until the summer, the S&P 500 achieved one of its best starts in history, closely following the trajectory of 1995. During that year, the Fed cut interest rates, marking the…

Pullbacks on the S&P 500 While 5% pullbacks can be unsettling, they are a normal part of the market cycle and often present good entry points for traders and investors to add exposure during a…

S&P 500 and Pullbacks While pullbacks can be challenging, historical data indicates that the S&P 500 tends to recover and move higher in the months following a 5% pullback. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Earnings vs. CPI and PPI While inflation can influence S&P 500 earnings, it is commonly seen as a lagging indicator rather than a leading one. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

S&P 500 and 3-Month VIX Relative to VIX (VIX3M/VIX) The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX closing at an oversold level below 1 is a potentially significant indicator of market sentiment. This can be interpreted…

Seasonality of Market Performance – MSCI USA August and September have historically been less favorable months for U.S. equities, with lower average performance compared to other months. Image: BofA Global Quantitative Strategy

Average Monthly Volatility for U.S. Election Years Since 1928 The historical pattern of the VIX rising before U.S. elections and then rapidly plunging afterward is attributed to increased uncertainty and investor fear leading up to…