Bar & Coin Demand and Real Gold Price As the gold price rises in real terms, bar and coin buying tends to rise, with inflation fears and economic clouds fueling the rush. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – S&P 500 P/E Ratio and Fed Chair Warnings on Stock Valuations Despite Powell acknowledging that U.S. equity prices look stretched, history suggests valuations alone rarely halt a rally—at least not in the short…

Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) The S&P 500 is still enjoying positive earnings sentiment, but momentum has cooled amid concerns over demand, margins and broader economic uncertainties. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

S&P 500 and Relative Strength Index (RSI) Right now, the 14-week RSI is nearing 70. When it previously climbed above 80, the S&P 500 saw an average 27% decline with an RSI lead time of…

S&P 500 Performance During Government Shutdowns Shutdown headlines can spark short-term volatility, yet the market’s track record tells a different story—since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12.7% rise in the 12 months after…

Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally After a powerful rally, the S&P 500 looks stretched, and the odds of a near-term pullback—or at best, a sideways pause—are building. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Annual Average IPO Return During First Trading Day The average U.S. IPO in 2025 has popped 30% on debut, with 72% of the 46 listings this year finishing their first session in the green—a sign…

S&P 500 Performance Around Growth Score Peak U.S. equities tend to perform well on average following growth score peaks, particularly if there is no recession and policy easing occurs. In that backdrop, valuations can be…

S&P 500 Valuation Despite lofty valuations, the fuel behind U.S. stock market performance this year has been earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In September For the bulls, September’s new highs are more than just cosmetic. Since 1950, a new high in September has been followed by a fourth-quarter rally…

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 442K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health…