Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report Strong earnings surprises boosted U.S. stocks in 2Q, but with already high expectations entering the quarter, the price reaction was somewhat limited compared to…

S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations The reported 9% EPS growth for 2Q 2025 is substantially higher than previous consensus expectations of roughly 4%, reflecting better-than-anticipated earnings results this quarter so…

S&P 500 Quarterly Margin Growth in the high-margin tech sector, economies of scale, network effects, and supportive financial and regulatory environments—key structural shifts—have pushed the S&P 500’s profit margins to nearly a four-year high. Image:…

Returns for Major Global Financial Assets The S&P 500 index rose 2.17% in July, which has historically been the best month in post-election years and over the past two decades. Image: Deutsche Bank

Market Implied Probability of a Fed Cut The odds of a September Fed rate cut have soared—current market pricing now suggests a very high probability after deeply disappointing U.S. labor market data. Image: TS Lombard

Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Heavily shorted stocks generally underperform the broader market over the long term, but in 2025, they significantly outperformed, driven primarily by aggressive short covering. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales and consumer confidence trends indicate cautious and subdued consumer spending growth, which has historically been linked to an increased risk of recession. Image: Real Investment…

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns While the bull market continues, August is generally regarded as a challenging month for U.S. equities in post-election years, characterized by a higher likelihood of declines and…

S&P 500 – Hedge Funds vs. Retail Investors The contrast between hedge funds taking short positions and retail investors being long is often seen as a warning of potential equity market weakness over the next…

S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter is rising again after a partial reset earlier in the first half of the year. Although this reset seems to have prolonged the…

S&P 500 Cyclical-Adjusted P/E Ratio vs. Net Private Foreign Inflows to U.S. Equities If foreign capital inflows weaken or reverse, U.S. stock valuations could come under downward pressure as investors reassess risk amid high prices…