Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve…
Performance – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 Seasonality Small caps historically tend to outperform the S&P 500 from December to February. Allocating a portion of the portfolio to small cap stocks during this time may…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Rate vs. U.S. Financial Conditions Index The decoupling of U.S. financial conditions from U.S. real rates persists. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Effective Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 Index Return vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Return Is 2024 poised to be the year for bonds, given that the median relative performance spread between stocks and bonds…
Growth vs. Value – Relative Price Return In 2023, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by a significant margin. This is often the case when economic growth is relatively weak and inflation declines. Image: Goldman…
China Property Stocks The sharp decline in Chinese property stocks, reaching levels unseen since the Global Financial Crisis, is worrisome considering the crucial role of the real estate sector in China’s economy. Image: BofA Global…
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 – % Stocks That Are Within 10% of Their All-Time Highs Highs The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high, but only 24% of individual stocks are within 10% of their peak levels,…
VIX and Geopolitical Risk Index The VIX tends to be sensitive to geopolitical events and can serve as an indicator of market sentiment during times of heightened geopolitical risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Home Price Forecasts Morgan Stanley projects a 3% decline in U.S. home prices for 2024. However, their bull case scenario predicts a 5% increase, while the bear case scenario anticipates an 8% drop. Image:…
Market Pricing of Fed Cuts vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield When the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it often leads to lower real yields, as investors adjust their expectations. Image:…