Probabilities of the U.S. Economy Entering Recession in the Following Periods The probability of a U.S. recession in H1 2023 is rising. Image: Morgan Stanley

U.S. High Yield vs. Investment Grade Returns and Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Historically, the outperformance of high yield bonds relative to investment grade bonds has followed the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index. Image: Morgan…

Total U.S. ETF Flows by Asset Class Inflows to U.S. ETFs are very strong this year, despite the bear market. Image: BofA ETF Research

S&P 500 vs. Financial Conditions U.S. financial conditions have eased meaningfully, coinciding with rising U.S. stock prices. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. ISM Services PMI The U.S. ISM Services Index came in much higher than expected in November. Could the Fed be more hawkish? Image: The Daily Shot

Credit vs. Equity Cumulative Flows Notable redemptions in credit funds this year, but not in equity funds. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Government Bond vs. Commodity Returns Will commodities continue to outperform government bonds? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Wage Growth – Potential Trajectory of U.S. Average Hourly Earnings Will wage growth slow enough in 2023 to satisfy the Fed? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Cumulative Flows into Equity by Regions Flows into U.S. equities remain strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium – Consensus Bottoms Up Earnings Yield – 10-Year Treasury Yield Can U.S. Treasury bonds be considered more attractive than U.S. stocks at present? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Atlanta Fed YoY Wage Growth Tracker So far, wage growth in the United States remains strong and historically high. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy