Annual Total Return Performance of the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Treasury 2022 will be remembered as one of the worst years for markets. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Credit-Based Recession Probability The U.S. credit recession indicator suggests that a U.S. recession is still less likely through the second quarter of 2023. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E – Bear Market Troughs The current S&P 500 valuation may suggest that U.S. stocks have not bottomed out. Image: KKR & Co.

Drawdown from 12-Month Rolling Peak – S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The median decline in S&P 500 earnings over the past 12 recessions has been -13%. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Earnings – PPI vs. U.S. EPS Growth U.S. earnings per share are expected to decline. Image: Steno Research

EPS – Real M2 Growth vs. S&P 500 12-Month Forward Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The decline in real M2 growth does not bode well for S&P 500 earnings. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Hit Ratio The past year was a challenging year for picking U.S. stocks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Recession – Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes – Number of States with Negative Growth Recession risks are still increasing in the United States. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

S&P 500 Excluding 5 Worst Days vs. S&P 500 Excluding 5 Best Days Timing the U.S. stock market is quite difficult. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters recession over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Relative Performance S&P 500 50 Small Stocks vs. 50 Largest Stocks Will the 50 smallest stocks within the S&P 500 outperform the 50 largest stocks in 2023? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy