Recession – Conference Board Leading Economic Index vs. U.S. Industrial Production The Conference Board Leading Economic Index suggests a contraction in U.S. industrial production. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and 200-Week Moving Average Historically, the 200-week moving average tends to be a strong support level for the S&P 500 until a recession occurs in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings – Global Manufacturing PMI New Orders vs. World Trailing 12-Month EPS (Leading Indicator) Global manufacturing PMI new orders tend to lead world EPS growth by 12 months. Image: BofA Global Research
Resources (Energy + Materials) Flows Will resources (energy + materials) continue to experience inflows? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Distribution of Historical Stock and Bond Returns U.S. stocks and bonds both have suffered significant losses since the beginning of the year. Image: Alpine Macro
Global CPI Inflation Global inflation is expected to decline substantially in 2023. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Real Yield Should investors remain bearish on the S&P 500? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Margins – PPI Trade Service Index, Unit Labor Costs and U.S. Core CPI Are margins at risk in 2023? Image: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Net Percent of U.S. Banks Tightening Consumer Loan Standards and Recessions Is it a warning sign of a recession on the horizon? U.S. banks are significantly tightening lending standards, which doesn’t bode well for the…
IG + HY + EM Debt Flows Flows into IG/HY/EM debt have turned positive. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Market Cycle Indicators Will the % of market cycle indicators be less than 30% in the next 12 months? Image: Richardson Wealth