S&P 500 Return Around Recessions Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard landing in 2023? Since World War II, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% during U.S. recessions. Image: Reuters

Commodities – Global Manufacturing Output PMI vs. Bloomberg Commodity Index Will commodity prices decline in 2023 amid slowing global demand? Image: TS Lombard

U.S. Existing Home Sales High mortgage rates do not bode well for existing home sales in the United States. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. ISM New Orders vs. S&P 500 NTM EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) Should U.S. equity investors expect -10% earnings growth in 2023? Image: KKR & Co.

Global Monetary Policy Map So far, global central banks remain firmly in a tightening mode. Image: Topdown Charts

Valuation – Long History of U.S. P/E The S&P 500 still does not look cheap despite a lower valuation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge  

U.S. Market Concentration Indicator U.S. market concentration has declined substantially. Image: Alpine Macro

Net % of FMS Investors Expecting Stronger Economy FMS investors expect a weaker economy in the next 12 months. Are FMS economy expectations too pessimistic? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Volatility – Average VIX vs. Short-Term Rates Levels VIX is expected to remain high in 2023. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate YoY Change The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate YoY change tends to lead the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index by 19 months. Image: UnderOrion and Macrobond

FMS Investors – Net % Say They Are Overweight Emerging Market Equities Should investors overweight emerging market equities in 2023? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey