U.S. Recession – 3-Month T-Bills Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation and 10-Year Treasury Rate Minus 12-Month CPI Inflation Historically, there has never been a recession in the United States with negative real interest rates. Image: Gavekal,…
Inflation – U.S. Trimmed and Median CPI Trimmed and median CPI remain sticky so far, which suggests that further rate hikes may be needed to tame inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P Sector Valuation Dashboard The S&P energy sector still looks attractive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Net % Expecting Higher Global CPI Almost all FMS investors expect inflation rates to fall. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 NTM EPS Yield Gap vs. 6-Month T-Bill Yields Cash is becoming an attractive option for investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market? Most FMS investors do not think this is a new bull market. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Sentiment – S&P 500 vs. NAAIM Exposure Index Active investment managers are chasing price. Are they too optimistic? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Net Percent of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards Lending standards are way too tight. Bye-bye soft landing? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Annual 60/40 Portfolio Performance Will the 60/40 portfolio continue to perform well in 2023? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Loan Demand Demand for commercial & industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) loans remains weak, which does not bode well for a soft landing. Image: BofA Global Research
Stocks – MSCI EMU Earnings Yield Minus Real 10-Year Bund Yield (Equity Risk Premium) The equity risk premium below its 10-year average does not bode well for eurozone stocks. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond