Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns Throughout history, steep declines in consumer sentiment have often been followed by strong stock market rallies over the next year, making these sentiment lows a potentially…

S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Even with average intra-year drops of 14.1%, the S&P 500 achieved positive annual returns in 34 out of the past 45 years, highlighting the importance of staying…

Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 While the pace of earnings growth for the Magnificent Seven is expected to moderate from the explosive gains of recent years, they are still forecast…

U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future.…

Global Gold Reserves vs. Global Dollar Reserves Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a shifting global financial landscape, central banks worldwide are increasingly favoring gold over the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset. Image: Blomberg

S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 The 2025 market exhibits a favorable pattern: a negative Q1 followed by a strong Q2 rebound of over 10%. Historically, Q3 has consistently…

S&P 500 Seasonal Composite 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle The S&P 500’s behavior in 2025 continues to align with the presidential election 4-year seasonal cycle, which provides a useful framework. Image: Nautilus Research

Equity Sector Flows Strong IT spending and AI innovation are driving robust inflows and sustained investor enthusiasm, which in turn support the technology sector’s resilience and growth in 2025. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy

Average Annual Inflation of 152 Countries Since 1971 The post-Bretton Woods monetary system features greater inflation variability and generally higher average inflation, making it difficult for countries to keep inflation consistently below 2% over the…

S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image:…

S&P 500 Index Returns Based on 4-Year Presidential Cycle Post-election years typically bring strong market gains. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of over 18%, with positive returns in 90% of cases. The…