Nominal GDP as % World for Important Countries/Regions The Global South is rapidly emerging as the primary driver of global demographic and economic growth. For investors and businesses, it presents expanding markets and new opportunities…
U.S. Dollar Exposure of Currency Hedge Funds Hedge funds have significantly increased their bearish bets against the U.S. dollar, reflecting widespread expectations that the dollar will weaken further against other major currencies. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread Widening credit spreads often signal upcoming declines in the S&P 500, serving as a valuable leading indicator of equity market stress because they typically…
S&P 500 Ratio to 1-Year MA vs. S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 market pricing broadly aligns with Deutsche Bank’s Q2 earnings growth forecast. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – Average P/E for Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500 As equity markets rally and valuations climb, markets become more susceptible to negative surprises. This has led many investors and analysts to worry about…
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Wage Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate When wage growth lags behind the fed funds rate, it is interpreted as a sign that monetary policy is restrictive, as borrowing costs exceed the pace of income growth,…
Buyback Announcements In 2025, U.S. companies are announcing record levels of share buybacks, aiming to return cash to shareholders, stabilize stock prices, and enhance EPS as they navigate economic and policy uncertainty. Image: Bloomberg
Profit Margins within S&P 500 Names Profit margins in the S&P 500 are elevated. As AI adoption accelerates, it is likely to have a transformative impact on profit margins across industries, with the tech sector…
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will reach 3.8% by December 2025. Although inflation is projected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target, wage pressures are cooling and…
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium With the U.S. equity risk premium at low levels, investors face a difficult landscape in which the risks of equity investments may not be sufficiently rewarded. Image: BCA Research