CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The current elevated Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that U.S. stock valuations are stretched relative to historical averages, a condition that has often preceded lower long-term investor returns.…

U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help…

S&P 500 Revenues The reported 4.8% real revenue growth for the S&P 500 excluding energy in Q2 2025 is a strong indicator of economic strength, marking the highest growth since early 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs…

U.S. Dollar Around Fed Cuts Typically, the U.S. dollar experiences weakness before the Fed’s initial rate cut, followed by possible strengthening or stabilization as the easing cycle progresses. Image: TS Lombard

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage With gross leverage remaining high and net leverage near its historical norm, hedge funds are able to sustain increased trading activity without markedly increasing their net market exposure. Image:…

S&P 500 Return Around First Fed Cut After Being on Hold for 6+ Months Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after at least six months of holding rates steady, U.S. stocks have often posted…

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation…

China’s Stock Performance – CSI 300 Index vs. M1 Money Sypply YoY Growth The growth rate of the M1 money supply, a key driver of liquidity and investment capacity, tends to correlate with China’s stock…

U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship…

S&P 500 Performance After 90-90 Days The NYSE “90/90 day” on Friday—when 90% of volume and stocks rose—is rare and bullish. Since 1980, such days often precede strong market gains, with the S&P 500 rising…

S&P 500 Return After the Fed Waits Between 5-12 Months to Cut Since 1970, whenever the Fed has waited between 5 and 12 months to cut rates, the US stock market has delivered positive returns…