U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History A 23x forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 reflects strong investor optimism, but it also highlights the risk of sharp corrections if earnings or economic conditions weaken.…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is currently at -0.4, a mildly bearish level that has historically preceded gains in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Gold Spot Price and Russell 3000 Gold Miners Subindustry Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold over the next 12 months, projecting a 14% rise driven by central bank demand and anticipated rate cuts, with even…
S&P 500 vs. 20+-Year U.S. Treasuries U.S. stocks continue to outperform bonds in an ongoing post-pandemic risk-on rally, despite periods of volatility. Market sentiment remains tilted toward risk assets. Image: Bloomberg
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies remain persistently bullish, driven by technical momentum, while discretionary investors stay cautious amid economic and geopolitical risks, creating a clear divergence in equity positioning. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
S&P 500 Performance Around First Fed Cut Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform strongly in the year after a Fed rate cut begins, particularly if economic growth continues. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. Labor Market – Job Openings per Unemployed Worker The ratio of U.S. job openings to unemployed workers below 1 indicates labor market weakness, with policy uncertainty and slowing demand increasing the likelihood of a…
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and…
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors Investor allocation to equities has reached an all-time high, driven by retail enthusiasm and strong performance. However, rising valuations and concentrated leadership…
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio with 10-Year Total Returns Valuations don’t matter—until they do. Over the past 150 years, high valuations have been a sign of poor forward returns, with negative real returns over…
Share of Global Market Capitalization With a 65% share of the global equity market, the United States exerts a significant influence over the global financial landscape, attracting investment and setting market trends that eclipse those…