Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High While many are skeptical about investing at all-time highs, evidence suggests it often leads to stronger forward returns…
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator currently stands at -0.1. Historically, readings at this level have tended to be followed by gains in the S&P 500 over the following month.…
U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads While tight high-yield credit spreads reflect strong market confidence, they also warrant caution as they may mask underlying vulnerabilities and investor complacency. Therefore, vigilant monitoring of credit spreads is…
Implied Probability of the S&P 500 Rising over the Next Six Months with a Cutoff Set at 75% JPMorgan’s AI-enhanced forecasting model indicates a 96% probability that U.S. stocks will rise over the next six…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects US real GDP will expand at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q2 2025, marking a significant rebound from the prior quarter’s contraction.…
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock In recent months, the S&P 500’s 52-week market breadth has shown signs of deterioration. Is an improvement possible before the end of…
The Link To Oil Oil consumption is deeply embedded in nearly every facet of modern life, from the food we eat to the products and services we purchase. This widespread use makes oil demand a…
S&P 500 Win Streaks the Month of July For 10 straight years, the S&P 500 has gained in July—an impressive record. Historically, July is the best month for stocks in post-election years. Another gain this…
U.S. Households’ (Incl. Hedge Fund) Asset Allocation U.S. households are currently heavily overweight in equities relative to fixed income, reflecting strong conviction in U.S. equity markets despite ongoing economic uncertainties and cautious positioning in bonds.…
S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s near-overbought technical condition raises the likelihood of short-term volatility or a consolidation phase as the market absorbs recent gains. Image: Bloomberg
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The combination of strong earnings growth, a more favorable geopolitical environment, and supportive technical indicators has led to a significant upward revision…