S&P 500 Earnings Yield Based on Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E The S&P 500’s earnings yield, based on Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E, sits near century lows. But if history is any guide, valuations can defy gravity for…
U.S. Unemployment Rate and U.S. Heavy Trucks Sales (Leading Indicator) Sales of U.S. heavy trucks tend to lead the economic cycle. When they drop, unemployment usually starts rising about six months later. Image: Goldman Sachs…
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) The S&P 500 has never been so profitable, and analysts expect margins to widen through 2026, keeping the bull story intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment After a brief reset earlier this year, the Euphoriameter, which tracks forward P/E, the VIX, and bullish sentiment, continues to roll over from record optimism,…
S&P 500 Index and 50-Day Moving Average After holding above its 50-day moving average, a key level traders watch to gauge momentum, the S&P 500 slipped below that support Wednesday as sellers came back into…
Bitcoin Annual Returns Bitcoin is sliding toward a year of losses, and this one comes without the usual chaos. No fraud, no implosion, just a quieter, more mature market learning that pain isn’t always tied…
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Earnings sentiment for the U.S. has cooled from earlier highs but stays positive overall, with strong corporate results helping to temper recession fears and sustain the bull…
Forward 10-Year Real Returns and CAPE Valuations Markets can soar beyond reason for a while, but history doesn’t forget: inflated valuations almost never reward patience. When the air gets thin, discipline and diversification keep portfolios…
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains While some volatility is likely, momentum still favors the bulls. After a powerful run from 2023 to 2025, the S&P 500 Index could…
Gold Price (5-Year Rolling Change) and World Military Expenses When governments ramp up military spending, gold tends to sparkle. Rising geopolitical risks and looser fiscal policy weaken paper currencies and revive inflation worries, sending investors…
Earnings Growth The gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to narrow, paving the way for a broader, more balanced earnings landscape across the index in 2026 and…