Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and…
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions Sharp increases in oil prices—often doubling—have been a consistent and significant signal preceding U.S. recessions, making oil prices a key economic indicator to watch for early signs of economic downturns.…
Concentration – Top 10, Top 3 and Top 1 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) China has one of the lowest market capitalization concentrations worldwide, with its top ten companies…
U.S. Core CPI Inflation U.S. inflation is moderating, aided by a slowing economy and a weaker labor market. However, the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in the coming months, potentially reversing the…
S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures % Open Interest Large speculators’ bearish positioning in the S&P 500 aligns with historical patterns seen near market lows, supporting the contrarian view that a rally is more likely if…
Concentration – Top 10 as % of Total (In Terms of Total Equity Market Capitalization) Compared to the U.S. market, China’s equity market currently shows a historically low level of market capitalization concentration, indicating greater…
3-Month Rolling S&P 500 Retail Flows Retail traders have demonstrated robust buying activity in recent months, with Goldman Sachs estimating net purchases of approximately $20 billion in U.S. stocks over the past three months. Image:…
The Cost of a Barrel of Oil in Real U.S. Dollar Terms While short-term oil price shocks can create significant economic disruptions and drive inflation higher, oil prices over the long run typically track the…
Fed Cuts – Implied by Fed Funds Futures Fewer Fed rate cuts are expected in 2025, but chances of greater easing in 2026 have risen. This reflects caution amid inflation and policy risks, and leaves…
Equities as a Share of Household Assets U.S. households now allocate about 49% of their assets to equities, a level that reflects strong market optimism and a significant appetite for risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…