% of Companies with Revenue Exposure to Just One Sector (TOPIX 500, MXAPJ, STOXX 600, S&P 500) The S&P 500 shows a striking level of concentration, with 61.1% of its companies relying on a single…
WTI Oil Prices in Real Terms The 2026 oil shock looks far less dramatic in historical terms. It still bites, just not with the same force. Once you adjust for inflation and reduced energy intensity,…
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism…
S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May – October) May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for the S&P 500, but the track record tells a different story. Over the past decade, the…
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro…
S&P 500 Returns Following Major Geopolitical Events History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually…
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, double-digit annual losses in the S&P 500 have been the exception, not the rule, occurring only 12 times. Today, with record earnings, elevated margins, and sustained AI…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Multiple – MSCI Regions, STOXX 600 and S&P 500 Markets may have pulled back, but valuations are still elevated worldwide. Strong earnings are doing the work, and as long as…
Global Economy – GDP Growth Projections The IMF projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Robust tech investment, steady policy support, and a surprisingly flexible private sector are keeping momentum alive…
S&P 500 Drawdowns from 52-Week High and the First Two Years of a New Fed Chair’s Term Fed leadership changes don’t usually shake markets on their own. It’s the macro picture and prior positioning that…