U.S. Tariff Costs Goldman Sachs forecasts that by October 2025, U.S. businesses will absorb just 8% of Trump-era tariff costs—down from 64%—while the share borne by U.S. consumers rises to 67%. This shift is expected…

NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks The NFIB Small Business Survey’s annual rate of change closely mirrors U.S. small-cap stock performance, making the NFIB index a key economic indicator for investors in this market segment.…

S&P 500 vs. Trend Line Growth Long-term trend charts show the S&P 500 trading significantly above its historical growth trajectory, with valuations at elevated levels—implying that U.S. equities are overvalued by traditional measures. Image: Ned…

Earnings of Tech Companies While U.S. tech stocks benefit from a wave of strong performance fueled by both hype and solid earnings fundamentals, non-tech stocks continue to experience prolonged earnings stagnation. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 – Length and Severity of Bear and Subsequent Bull Markets Since 1970, the typical bear market lasts roughly 14 months, experiencing an average decline of around 38%, and is followed by bull markets…

Energy Group Positioning Energy positioning in the 55th percentile is considered neutral and far from extreme. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 3-Month Return Dispersion S&P 500 return dispersion has risen above the long-term average in recent months, indicating that the gap between the best- and worst-performing stocks in the index has widened significantly. Image:…

VIX – Volatility Index Market confidence and complacency, spurred by expectations of Fed rate cuts and strong economic data, have pushed the VIX to its lowest level in 2025; yet, volatility may resurface before year-end.…

U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs projects U.S. core CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in tariffs, and expects it to gradually ease to 2.6% in 2026 despite…

Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Investing on Any Day vs. Investing at New High Despite widespread investor hesitation to buy at all-time highs, data suggest that doing so generally leads to better future…

Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Equity positioning aligns with S&P 500 Q2 2025 earnings growth and suggests further upside—if robust and resilient earnings continue and broaden across sectors. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation